Parma 1-1 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cagliari at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Cagliari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Cagliari at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cagliari have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Parma at 1.50 PPG versus Cagliari's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Cagliari have the better historical record — 4 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Parma.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Cagliari winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Cagliari have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Parma in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Cagliari in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 55% versus Cagliari 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 47% | Cagliari 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.13 xG and Cagliari 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.779 / defence 1.119 | Cagliari attack 0.915 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.197. Parma's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Parma games / 64 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 34% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 38%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Cagliari 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cagliari at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Parma 40% | Cagliari 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Friday 27 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 34% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Parma 1.13 / Cagliari 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.779 / def 1.119 | Cagliari attack 0.915 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Cagliari xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Cagliari kick off?
Parma vs Cagliari kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 27 February 2026 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Cagliari?
Parma 1 - 1 Cagliari.
Where is Parma vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Cagliari part of?
Parma vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 34% chance of winning, Cagliari a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Parma and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Cagliari?
Record (7 meetings): Parma 1W | Draws 2 | Cagliari 4W.
What form are Parma and Cagliari in?
Parma (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Cagliari (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Parma's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Cagliari's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
34%
2.97
28%
3.58
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Parma xG
Total xG
2.36
1.23
Cagliari xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
10%
10.12
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Parma and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Parma and 1.23 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Parma's recent record stands at 15W 23D 26L from 64 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 16W 17D 31L across 64 games — 1.02 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.06 PPG, Cagliari on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Parma have managed 8W 10D 14L from 32 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 6W 9D 17L across 32 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.06 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 15W 23D 26L in their last 64 games (1.06 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 16W 17D 31L in their last 64 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Cagliari away?
Parma's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.06 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Parma's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Parma
3
Draws
5
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Cagliari?
From 9 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Cagliari have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Parma 0-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Cagliari?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 59%, Cagliari 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Parma) and 50% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Parma have failed to score in 31% of games; Cagliari in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Cagliari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Parma's games and 56% of Cagliari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Parma's recent games and 50% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Cagliari tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma and Cagliari share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 27, as Parma and Cagliari drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.13 xG and Cagliari 1.23 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.78 / defence 1.12 against Cagliari attack 0.92 / defence 1.19, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 34% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 38%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 47%, Cagliari 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Cagliari's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.06 PPG, Cagliari 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.