Parma 2-3 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Ennio Tardini plays host to Parma versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Parma have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
AS Roma (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
AS Roma away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Parma, 1.70 for AS Roma — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to AS Roma, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with AS Roma winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AS Roma have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 53% versus AS Roma 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 42% | AS Roma 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 0.97 xG and AS Roma 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.739 / defence 1.105 | AS Roma attack 1.136 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.093. Parma's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 73 Parma games / 73 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 26% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 46%. Fair-value odds: Parma 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | AS Roma 2.17. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Parma 40% | AS Roma 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 26% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Parma 0.97 / AS Roma 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.739 / def 1.105 | AS Roma attack 1.136 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.37
AS Roma xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs AS Roma kick off?
Parma vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs AS Roma?
Parma 2 - 3 AS Roma.
Where is Parma vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs AS Roma part of?
Parma vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 26% chance of winning, AS Roma a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Parma and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and AS Roma?
Record (3 meetings): Parma 0W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 3W.
What form are Parma and AS Roma in?
Parma (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Parma's attack rating (0.74) and AS Roma's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.14x) against Parma's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
26%
3.81
28%
3.56
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Parma xG
Total xG
2.35
1.37
AS Roma xG
3.81
26%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
7%
15.02
17%
5.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 13.1 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Parma and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Parma and 1.37 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Parma come into this having played 73 games, going 17W 27D 29L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.82 PPG from 73 outings (40W 13D 20L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Parma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Parma's home form reads 9W 12D 15L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.47 points per game from 36 outings (15W 8D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Parma are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.48 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 17W 27D 29L in their last 73 games (1.07 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 40W 13D 20L in their last 73 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.08 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Parma or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, AS Roma in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
AS Roma go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 5-0 on 22 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Parma
0
Draws
4
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and AS Roma?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 0, AS Roma have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Parma and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Parma 2-3 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 58%, AS Roma 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Parma) and 33% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 39%; Parma have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Parma's recent matches and 44% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Parma's recent games and 33% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and AS Roma tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Parma 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Parma 2-3 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 0.97 xG and AS Roma 1.37 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AS Roma outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.74 / defence 1.10 against AS Roma attack 1.14 / defence 1.07, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 26% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 46%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 42%, AS Roma 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Parma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.