Monza 2-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monza vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Monza and Empoli meet at U-Power Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 March 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Monza have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza at U-Power Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Empoli's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Monza, 1.40 for Empoli — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Monza 0W, Empoli 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Empoli winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Monza — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Empoli — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 50% versus Empoli 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 53% | Empoli 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.16 xG and Empoli 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.898 / defence 1.120 | Empoli attack 0.890 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.176. Data: 24 Monza games / 62 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 36% | Draw 28% | Empoli 36%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Empoli 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Monza 40% | Empoli 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 36% | Draw 28% | Empoli 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Monza 1.16 / Empoli 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.898 / def 1.120 | Empoli attack 0.890 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Empoli xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Empoli kick off?
Monza vs Empoli kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Empoli?
Monza 2 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Monza vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Empoli part of?
Monza vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 36% chance of winning, Empoli a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Monza and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Empoli?
Record (1 meetings): Monza 0W | Draws 0 | Empoli 1W.
What form are Monza and Empoli in?
Monza (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Empoli (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Monza's attack at 0.90x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.89x) against Monza's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 24/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
36%
2.81
28%
3.55
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Monza xG
Total xG
2.33
1.17
Empoli xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
11%
9.07
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Monza and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Monza and 1.17 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Monza come into this having played 62 games, going 30W 12D 20L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.11 PPG from 62 outings (16W 21D 25L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Monza's home form reads 18W 6D 7L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 1.16 points per game from 31 outings (8W 12D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Monza are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.16 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Empoli in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 30W 12D 20L in their last 62 games (1.65 PPG), while Empoli have gone 16W 21D 25L in their last 62 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Empoli away?
Monza's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.94 PPG; Empoli away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Monza or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Empoli in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 8 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Empoli won 3-0 on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monza have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Monza
3
Draws
3
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Monza have won 2, Empoli have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Monza 2-2 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Empoli?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 52%, Empoli 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Monza) and 32% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Empoli in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Monza's recent matches and 48% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Monza's recent games and 32% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Empoli tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Empoli in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Monza defy the odds to beat Empoli 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Empoli 2-1 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.16 xG and Empoli 1.17 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Monza beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.90 / defence 1.12 against Empoli attack 0.89 / defence 1.00, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 36% | Draw 28% | Empoli 36%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 53%, Empoli 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Empoli's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.