Lecce 2-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Udinese (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lecce face Udinese.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lecce host Udinese at Stadio Via del Mare in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lecce — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce at Stadio Via del Mare this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Lecce are significantly better at Stadio Via del Mare than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Udinese have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Udinese are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Udinese have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 7 encounters against Lecce's 1 victories.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 2–3 with Udinese winning.
It is worth noting that Udinese have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Lecce in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Udinese in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 36% versus Udinese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 36% | Udinese 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 0.97 xG and Udinese 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.659 / defence 1.058 | Udinese attack 1.056 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.174. Lecce's attack strength of 0.659 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Udinese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Lecce's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Lecce games / 61 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 28% | Draw 28% | Udinese 44%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Udinese 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Udinese as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lecce 30% | Udinese 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Via del Mare • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 28% | Draw 28% | Udinese 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Lecce 0.97 / Udinese 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.659 / def 1.058 | Udinese attack 1.056 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Udinese (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Udinese xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Udinese kick off?
Lecce vs Udinese kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Stadio Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Udinese?
Lecce 2 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Lecce vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Udinese part of?
Lecce vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 28% chance of winning, Udinese a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Lecce and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Udinese?
Record (7 meetings): Lecce 1W | Draws 2 | Udinese 4W.
What form are Lecce and Udinese in?
Lecce (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Udinese (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lecce's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
28%
3.62
28%
3.54
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.29
1.31
Udinese xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
7%
13.44
17%
5.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 13.3 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lecce and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Lecce and 1.31 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lecce come into this having played 61 games, going 12W 16D 33L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.25 PPG from 61 outings (21W 13D 27L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Lecce — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lecce's home form reads 6W 10D 14L across 30 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.20 points per game from 30 outings (10W 6D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Lecce are averaging 0.66 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.10 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Udinese in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 12W 16D 33L in their last 61 games (0.85 PPG), while Udinese have gone 21W 13D 27L in their last 61 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Udinese away?
Udinese's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 0.93 PPG; Udinese away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lecce's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lecce
2
Draws
4
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Udinese?
From 8 meetings on record, Lecce have won 2, Udinese have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Lecce 2-1 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lecce see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 37%, Udinese 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Lecce) and 50% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Lecce have failed to score in 50% of games; Udinese in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Lecce's recent matches and 63% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Lecce's recent games and 50% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Udinese tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Udinese in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lecce defy the odds to beat Udinese 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Udinese 2-1 at Stadio Via del Mare, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 0.97 xG and Udinese 1.31 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Lecce beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.66 / defence 1.06 against Udinese attack 1.06 / defence 1.20, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 28% | Draw 28% | Udinese 44%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Lecce win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 36%, Udinese 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Udinese's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Udinese arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Lecce winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lecce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.