Lazio 1-1 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lazio (64%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Lazio face Sassuolo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lazio host Sassuolo at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A (matchday 38). Kick-off is Sunday 26 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Lazio — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Lazio have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Sassuolo have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Sassuolo have posted 0W 1D 9L from their last 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Lazio are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Lazio: 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 1 for Sassuolo, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Lazio 2–0 Sassuolo — a Lazio win.
The head-to-head data gives Lazio an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Lazio in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 33 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Sassuolo in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 62%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 41% versus Sassuolo 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 41% | Sassuolo 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.93 xG and Sassuolo 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.001 / defence 0.744 | Sassuolo attack 0.858 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.210. Sassuolo's defence rating of 1.419 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lazio's projected output up. Lazio have a tight defence (rating 0.744), which is pulling Sassuolo's projected output down. Data: built from Lazio's last 75 games and Sassuolo's last 75.
Result probabilities: Lazio 64% | Draw 23% | Sassuolo 13%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 1.57 | Draw 4.36 | Sassuolo 7.56. The model has a clear lean to Lazio (64%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lazio 40% (last 10 home games) | Sassuolo 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 38 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 64% | Draw 23% | Sassuolo 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Lazio 1.93 / Sassuolo 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.001 / def 0.744 | Sassuolo attack 0.858 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Lazio (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Sassuolo xG
47%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lazio vs Sassuolo FAQs
What time does Lazio vs Sassuolo kick off?
Lazio vs Sassuolo kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Sassuolo?
Lazio 1 - 1 Sassuolo.
Where is Lazio vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Sassuolo part of?
Lazio vs Sassuolo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 38) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 64% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 13% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lazio and Sassuolo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Lazio vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lazio's attack at 1.00x the league average against Sassuolo's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus Lazio's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lazio's last 75 games and Sassuolo's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 1-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
64%
1.57
23%
4.36
13%
7.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.71
0.77
Sassuolo xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
7.56
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
14%
6.91
Win to Nil
29%
3.39
2%
52.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 10.0 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lazio vs Sassuolo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Lazio and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Lazio and 0.77 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Sassuolo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 75 outings, Lazio have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 40W 14D 21L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Sassuolo's form line: 19W 17D 39L from 75 games, 0.99 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Lazio are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sassuolo.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lazio have posted 1.89 PPG from their last 37 home games (21W 7D 9L).
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 6W 8D 23L from their last 37 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lazio are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.19 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Current Season
Sassuolo
Current Season
Lazio (Home) vs Sassuolo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lazio
Current Season
Sassuolo
Current Season
❓ Lazio vs Sassuolo Form FAQs
What form are Lazio and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 40W 14D 21L in their last 75 games (1.79 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 19W 17D 39L in their last 75 (0.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Sassuolo away?
Lazio's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.89 PPG; Sassuolo away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Lazio or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 27 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lazio have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Oct 2026, when Lazio won Sassuolo 2-6 Lazio.
Lazio's record when hosting Sassuolo specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Lazio
1
Draws
2
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Lazio vs Sassuolo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Sassuolo?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Lazio have won 6, Sassuolo have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lazio and Sassuolo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 October 2026: Sassuolo 2-6 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and Sassuolo?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lazio see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 82% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 40%, Sassuolo 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Lazio) and 68% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Sassuolo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lazio vs Sassuolo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lazio and Sassuolo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Lazio's recent matches and 57% of Sassuolo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lazio and Sassuolo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Lazio's recent games and 68% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lazio and Sassuolo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Lazio's recent matches and 78% of Sassuolo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lazio and Sassuolo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio and Sassuolo finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.93 xG and Sassuolo 0.77 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lazio fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.00 / defence 0.74 against Sassuolo attack 0.86 / defence 1.42, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 64% | Draw 23% | Sassuolo 13%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 41%, Sassuolo 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Sassuolo's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.99. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sassuolo (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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