Lazio 3-3 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lazio at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lazio vs Hellas Verona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 38 as Lazio welcome Hellas Verona to Stadio Olimpico. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 May 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lazio stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lazio's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hellas Verona — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hellas Verona's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Lazio carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lazio register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Hellas Verona in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Lazio have won 0, Hellas Verona 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 1–4 with Hellas Verona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lazio trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Hellas Verona trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lazio 62% and Hellas Verona 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lazio 76% | Hellas Verona 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.60 xG and Hellas Verona 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.141 / defence 1.021 | Hellas Verona attack 0.893 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.360. Hellas Verona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Lazio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Lazio games / 37 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 45% | Draw 27% | Hellas Verona 29%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Hellas Verona 3.45. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lazio as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lazio 60% | Hellas Verona 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 45% | Draw 27% | Hellas Verona 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Lazio 1.60 / Hellas Verona 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.141 / def 1.021 | Hellas Verona attack 0.893 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Lazio (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Hellas Verona xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Lazio vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Hellas Verona?
Lazio 3 - 3 Hellas Verona.
Where is Lazio vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Hellas Verona part of?
Lazio vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 45% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lazio and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Hellas Verona?
Record (1 meetings): Lazio 0W | Draws 0 | Hellas Verona 1W.
What form are Lazio and Hellas Verona in?
Lazio (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lazio's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Lazio's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
45%
2.24
27%
3.77
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.84
1.24
Hellas Verona xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
6%
17.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Lazio and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Lazio and 1.24 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lazio's recent record stands at 18W 9D 10L from 37 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Hellas Verona, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 13L across 37 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lazio on 1.70 PPG, Hellas Verona on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lazio have managed 10W 5D 3L from 18 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hellas Verona's away record stands at 5W 7D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lazio are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.68 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lazio have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Hellas Verona in 76%.
Last 37 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Current Season
Hellas Verona
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 18W 9D 10L in their last 37 games (1.70 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 14W 10D 13L in their last 37 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Hellas Verona away?
Lazio's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.94 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lazio and Hellas Verona runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lazio have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2025, when Lazio won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lazio's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Lazio
3
Draws
1
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Hellas Verona?
From 10 meetings on record, Lazio have won 6, Hellas Verona have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-1 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and Hellas Verona?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lazio at 61%, Hellas Verona at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Lazio and 56% for Hellas Verona. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Lazio's games and 78% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lazio vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lazio's matches and 56% of Hellas Verona's.
Do Lazio and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lazio and Hellas Verona share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio and Hellas Verona finished level at 3-3 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.60 xG and Hellas Verona 1.24 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Lazio beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hellas Verona outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.14 / defence 1.02 against Hellas Verona attack 0.89 / defence 1.25, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 45% | Draw 27% | Hellas Verona 29%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 76%, Hellas Verona 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lazio 1.70 PPG, Hellas Verona 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lazio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.