Lazio 2-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lazio vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 1 as Lazio welcome Bologna to Stadio Olimpico. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 August 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lazio haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stadio Olimpico, Lazio have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bologna haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Bologna away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Lazio are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Lazio, 1 for Bologna and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 3–0 with Lazio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lazio in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Bologna in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 63% versus Bologna 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 76% | Bologna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.55 xG and Bologna 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.122 / defence 0.983 | Bologna attack 0.913 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.398. Data: 38 Lazio games / 38 Bologna games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lazio 44% | Draw 26% | Bologna 30%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Bologna 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lazio 60% | Bologna 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 44% | Draw 26% | Bologna 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Lazio 1.55 / Bologna 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.122 / def 0.983 | Bologna attack 0.913 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: Lazio (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Bologna xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Bologna kick off?
Lazio vs Bologna kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Bologna?
Lazio 2 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Lazio vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Bologna part of?
Lazio vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 44% chance of winning, Bologna a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Lazio and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Bologna?
Record (2 meetings): Lazio 1W | Draws 0 | Bologna 1W.
What form are Lazio and Bologna in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Lazio (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lazio's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Lazio's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
44%
2.29
26%
3.82
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.81
1.25
Bologna xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
6%
15.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Lazio and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Lazio and 1.25 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Lazio have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 18W 10D 10L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. Lazio haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Bologna's form line: 12W 10D 16L from 38 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. Bologna haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Lazio are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bologna.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lazio have posted 1.89 PPG from 19 outings (10W 6D 3L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 4W 6D 9L from 19 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lazio are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.16 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lazio have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Pre-Season
Bologna
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Bologna in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 18W 10D 10L in their last 38 games (1.68 PPG), while Bologna have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Bologna away?
Lazio's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.89 PPG; Bologna away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Lazio or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Bologna in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lazio and Bologna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2025, when Bologna won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lazio's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lazio
2
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Lazio have won 4, Bologna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Bologna 0-2 Lazio.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 63%, Bologna 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Lazio and 53% for Bologna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bologna in 32%; Bologna in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Lazio's games and 53% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lazio vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Lazio's matches and 53% of Bologna's.
Do Lazio and Bologna tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Bologna in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lazio edge out Bologna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Bologna 2-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.55 xG and Bologna 1.25 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.12 / defence 0.98 against Bologna attack 0.91 / defence 0.98, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 44% | Draw 26% | Bologna 30%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 76%, Bologna 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.