Lazio 3-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Lazio at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lazio vs Bologna encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Lazio welcome Bologna to Stadio Olimpico in Serie A (matchday 13). Kick-off is Sunday 24 November 2024 at 19:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Lazio have gone 7W 1D 2L — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Lazio have gone 8W 2D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Bologna stand at 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bologna away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Lazio are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Lazio, 2 for Bologna and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Feb 2024, ended Lazio 1–2 Bologna — a Bologna win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Lazio in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Bologna in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 55% versus Bologna 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 49% | Bologna 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lazio surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Bologna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 58% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.81 xG and Bologna 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.240 / defence 0.870 | Bologna attack 1.172 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.333. Data: built from Lazio's last 50 games and Bologna's last 49.

Result probabilities: Lazio 48% | Draw 24% | Bologna 29%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.09 | Draw 4.25 | Bologna 3.50. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.81 / 1.36) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lazio's last 10 home games and Bologna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lazio 70% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 50% (last 10 away games).

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