Juventus 0-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventus at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventus vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 2 as Juventus welcome Empoli to Allianz Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventus have gone 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Juventus have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Empoli — All Games: 0W 0D 1L from 1 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Juventus are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.60 xG and Empoli 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 0.962 / defence 1.150 | Empoli attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.438. Data: 1 Juventus games / 1 Empoli games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Juventus 42% | Draw 24% | Empoli 34%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Empoli 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventus at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 42% | Draw 24% | Empoli 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Juventus 1.60 / Empoli 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 0.962 / def 1.150 | Empoli attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Juventus (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Empoli xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Empoli kick off?
Juventus vs Empoli kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Empoli?
Juventus 0 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Juventus vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Empoli part of?
Juventus vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 42% chance of winning, Empoli a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Juventus and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Empoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juventus and Empoli in?
Juventus (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D. Empoli (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Juventus's attack at 0.96x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Juventus's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
42%
2.37
24%
4.14
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Juventus xG
Total xG
3.01
1.41
Empoli xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
10%
9.65
7%
14.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Juventus and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Juventus and 1.41 for Empoli, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juventus come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Juventus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Juventus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Juventus are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventus have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Empoli in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Empoli in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Empoli have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2022, when Juventus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juventus's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Juventus
2
Draws
2
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventus have won 4, Empoli have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Juventus 4-1 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Empoli?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Juventus's games and 100% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juventus vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Juventus's matches and 100% of Empoli's.
Do Juventus and Empoli tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Empoli in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Empoli defy the odds to beat Juventus 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Juventus 0-1 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.60 xG and Empoli 1.41 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Juventus fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Empoli attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 42% | Draw 24% | Empoli 34%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Empoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 100%, Empoli 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Empoli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Juventus managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Empoli conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.