Inter 2-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Inter at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inter vs Bologna encounter.

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Match Analysis

Inter host Bologna at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Serie A (matchday 8). Kick-off is Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Inter — last 10 games: 8W 0D 2L, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Inter's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.40 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Bologna stand at 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling, Bologna have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Inter are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Inter have won 1, Bologna 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Feb 2023, ended Inter 0–1 Bologna — a Bologna win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Inter in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

Bologna in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 47% versus Bologna 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 58% | Bologna 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 1.64 xG and Bologna 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.477 / defence 0.881 | Bologna attack 0.927 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.074. Inter carry an above-average attack rating of 1.477 — their 1.64 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Bologna bring a tight defence (rating 0.786, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Inter's projected output down. Data: built from Inter's last 45 games and Bologna's last 45.

Result probabilities: Inter 54% | Draw 28% | Bologna 18%. Fair-value odds: Inter 1.86 | Draw 3.56 | Bologna 5.47. Inter hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Inter's last 10 home games and Bologna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches point the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Inter 50% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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