Hellas Verona 4-1 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 54%, yet in-form Lazio provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hellas Verona vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Lazio travel to Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi to take on Hellas Verona. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 2W 2D 4L from 8 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 2.12 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.12 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 2L across 4 games at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Hellas Verona are significantly better at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 4W 2D 2L from 8 outings — 1.75 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.25 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's away record: 1W 1D 2L from 4 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.75 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lazio — 0.75 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.75 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Hellas Verona trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 88%.
Lazio trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hellas Verona 75% and Lazio 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hellas Verona 88% | Lazio 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.95 xG and Lazio 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.209 / defence 1.225 | Lazio attack 0.648 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.533. Lazio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Hellas Verona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Hellas Verona games / 8 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 54% | Draw 22% | Lazio 24%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Lazio 4.17. Hellas Verona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hellas Verona as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lazio (1.75 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 75% | Lazio 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 54% | Draw 22% | Lazio 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG Hellas Verona 1.95 / Lazio 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.209 / def 1.225 | Lazio attack 0.648 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.533 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Lazio xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Lazio kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Lazio kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Hellas Verona 4 - 1 Lazio.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Lazio part of?
Hellas Verona vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 54% chance of winning, Lazio a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Hellas Verona and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Lazio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hellas Verona and Lazio in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 2W-2D-4L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.12 / GA 2.12 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Lazio (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 1.62 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (1.21) and Lazio's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
54%
1.84
22%
4.56
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
3.17
1.22
Lazio xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
14%
7.04
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
3%
29.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.22 for Lazio, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 2W 2D 4L from 8 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 2L across 8 games — 1.75 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lazio by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hellas Verona heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hellas Verona have managed 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Hellas Verona are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lazio's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lazio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hellas Verona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 2.25 scored and 1.62 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Lazio in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Lazio in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 games (1.00 PPG), while Lazio have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Lazio away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.50 PPG; Lazio away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lazio have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2025, when Lazio won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Hellas Verona
3
Draws
6
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 1, Lazio have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-1 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 75%, Lazio 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Hellas Verona and 50% for Lazio. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lazio in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Lazio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Hellas Verona's games and 50% of Lazio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Hellas Verona's matches and 50% of Lazio's.
Do Hellas Verona and Lazio tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lazio in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hellas Verona run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Lazio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Lazio 4-1 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.95 xG and Lazio 1.22 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Hellas Verona beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 1.21 / defence 1.23 against Lazio attack 0.65 / defence 1.21, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 54% | Draw 22% | Lazio 24%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 81% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 88%, Lazio 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Lazio's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Hellas Verona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Lazio (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.