Hellas Verona 0-3 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hellas Verona and Fiorentina meet at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Monday 27 February 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Hellas Verona (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's home record at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fiorentina have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Hellas Verona 0W, Fiorentina 1W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 0–2 with Fiorentina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hellas Verona 69% and Fiorentina 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 54% | Fiorentina 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.15 xG and Fiorentina 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.940 / defence 0.922 | Fiorentina attack 0.804 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.164. Data: 61 Hellas Verona games / 61 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 42% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 27%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Fiorentina 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hellas Verona are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hellas Verona 60% | Fiorentina 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Monday 27 Feb 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 42% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Hellas Verona 1.15 / Fiorentina 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.940 / def 0.922 | Fiorentina attack 0.804 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Fiorentina xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 27 February 2023 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Hellas Verona 0 - 3 Fiorentina.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina part of?
Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 42% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Hellas Verona and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Fiorentina?
Record (3 meetings): Hellas Verona 0W | Draws 2 | Fiorentina 1W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Fiorentina in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (0.94) and Fiorentina's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (0.80x) against Hellas Verona's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
42%
2.37
30%
3.29
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.01
0.86
Fiorentina xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
9%
11.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 11.6 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 0.86 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hellas Verona come into this having played 61 games, going 18W 16D 27L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.43 PPG from 61 outings (25W 12D 24L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Hellas Verona against 1.43 for Fiorentina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Hellas Verona's home form reads 13W 4D 13L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.00 points per game from 30 outings (8W 6D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fiorentina's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hellas Verona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.36 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 18W 16D 27L in their last 61 games (1.15 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 25W 12D 24L in their last 61 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Fiorentina away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.43 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 0-3 on 27 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hellas Verona
2
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 3, Fiorentina have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 67%, Fiorentina 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Hellas Verona) and 47% (Fiorentina). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Hellas Verona's games and 60% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Hellas Verona's matches and 47% of Fiorentina's.
Do Hellas Verona and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fiorentina run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Hellas Verona 0-3 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.15 xG and Fiorentina 0.86 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hellas Verona fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Fiorentina outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against Fiorentina attack 0.80 / defence 0.94, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 42% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 27%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Fiorentina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 54%, Fiorentina 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Fiorentina's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 1.15 PPG, Fiorentina 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.