Hellas Verona 1-4 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hellas Verona host Empoli at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Hellas Verona are significantly better at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hellas Verona 0.60 PPG, Empoli 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hellas Verona register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Empoli in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Hellas Verona hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for Empoli, with 3 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 2–1 with Hellas Verona winning.
The historical record gives Hellas Verona a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Empoli in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 56% versus Empoli 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 58% | Empoli 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.39 xG and Empoli 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.005 / defence 1.530 | Empoli attack 0.867 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.260. Data: 52 Hellas Verona games / 52 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 32% | Draw 25% | Empoli 44%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Empoli 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Empoli are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 60% | Empoli 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 32% | Draw 25% | Empoli 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Hellas Verona 1.39 / Empoli 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.005 / def 1.530 | Empoli attack 0.867 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Empoli (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Empoli xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Empoli kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Empoli kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Hellas Verona 1 - 4 Empoli.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Empoli part of?
Hellas Verona vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 32% chance of winning, Empoli a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Hellas Verona and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Empoli?
Record (6 meetings): Hellas Verona 3W | Draws 3 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Empoli in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Empoli (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (1.00) and Empoli's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
32%
3.17
25%
4.06
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
3.06
1.67
Empoli xG
3.17
32%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
19%
5.31
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
6%
16.82
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.67 for Empoli, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hellas Verona come into this having played 52 games, going 13W 11D 28L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.00 PPG from 52 outings (12W 16D 24L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hellas Verona on 0.96 PPG, Empoli on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hellas Verona's home form reads 9W 6D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.96 points per game from 26 outings (6W 7D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.75 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Empoli in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 13W 11D 28L in their last 52 games (0.96 PPG), while Empoli have gone 12W 16D 24L in their last 52 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Empoli away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.27 PPG; Empoli away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Empoli won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hellas Verona
3
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 4, Empoli have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Empoli 1-2 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Empoli?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 62%, Empoli 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Hellas Verona) and 35% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Empoli in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 46% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 35% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Empoli tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Empoli in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Empoli run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Hellas Verona 1-4 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.39 xG and Empoli 1.67 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Empoli outscored their 1.67 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 1.00 / defence 1.53 against Empoli attack 0.87 / defence 1.01, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 32% | Draw 25% | Empoli 44%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 58%, Empoli 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 0.96 PPG, Empoli 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.