Hellas Verona 2-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Bologna make the trip to Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi to face Hellas Verona in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Friday 21 January 2022 at 19:45 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Hellas Verona have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Bologna (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Hellas Verona against 1.20 for Bologna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Bologna in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hellas Verona lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Bologna winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Hellas Verona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hellas Verona 81% and Bologna 48% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 71% | Bologna 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.58 xG and Bologna 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.033 / defence 1.082 | Bologna attack 0.763 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.550. Bologna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing Hellas Verona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Hellas Verona games / 21 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 44% | Draw 25% | Bologna 31%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Bologna 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hellas Verona at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 80% | Bologna 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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