Genoa 0-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Genoa take on Parma.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus Parma in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 19 October 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Genoa have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Luigi Ferraris — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Genoa are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Parma's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Parma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Parma have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Genoa, 0.90 for Parma — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Genoa lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2025, ended 1–0 with Genoa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 48% versus Parma 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 41% | Parma 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.89 xG and Parma 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.724 / defence 1.154 | Parma attack 0.728 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.077. Genoa's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Genoa games / 44 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 32% | Draw 35% | Parma 33%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Parma 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.80 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 40% | Parma 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 32% | Draw 35% | Parma 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Genoa 0.89 / Parma 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.724 / def 1.154 | Parma attack 0.728 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Parma xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Parma kick off?
Genoa vs Parma kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Parma?
Genoa 0 - 0 Parma.
Where is Genoa vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Parma part of?
Genoa vs Parma is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 32% chance of winning, Parma a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Genoa and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Parma?
Record (4 meetings): Genoa 2W | Draws 1 | Parma 1W.
What form are Genoa and Parma in?
Genoa (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Parma (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.72x the league average against Parma's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Parma's attack (0.73x) against Genoa's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.12
35%
2.84
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Genoa xG
Total xG
1.80
0.90
Parma xG
3.12
32%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 15.0 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Genoa and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Genoa and 0.90 for Parma, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 10W 15D 19L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Parma's form line: 8W 17D 19L from 44 games, 0.93 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Genoa against 0.93 for Parma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Genoa have posted 1.05 PPG from 22 outings (5W 8D 9L).
On the road, Parma have gone 2W 10D 10L from 22 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.07 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Early Season
Parma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Parma in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 10W 15D 19L in their last 44 games (1.02 PPG), while Parma have gone 8W 17D 19L in their last 44 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Parma away?
Genoa's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.05 PPG; Parma away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Genoa
3
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Parma?
From 6 meetings on record, Genoa have won 2, Parma have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Parma 0-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Parma?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Parma see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 46%, Parma 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Genoa) and 50% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Genoa have failed to score in 36% of games; Parma in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Genoa's recent matches and 54% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Genoa's recent games and 50% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Genoa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 7, as Genoa and Parma drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.89 xG and Parma 0.90 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Genoa fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Parma landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.72 / defence 1.15 against Parma attack 0.73 / defence 1.03, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 32% | Draw 35% | Parma 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 41%, Parma 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Parma's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.02 PPG, Parma 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.