Genoa 2-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventus at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Juventus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Juventus travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 May 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Genoa — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genoa have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventus have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Juventus have posted 7W 3D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Juventus are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Genoa, 1 for Juventus and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Juventus winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Genoa in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Juventus in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 43% versus Juventus 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 40% | Juventus 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.71 xG and Juventus 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.605 / defence 1.042 | Juventus attack 1.093 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.319. Genoa's attack strength of 0.605 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Genoa games / 35 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 17% | Draw 28% | Juventus 55%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 5.88 | Draw 3.57 | Juventus 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Juventus (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventus are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Genoa 30% | Juventus 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 17% | Draw 28% | Juventus 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 40% | xG Genoa 0.71 / Juventus 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.605 / def 1.042 | Juventus attack 1.093 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Juventus (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Juventus xG
40%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Juventus kick off?
Genoa vs Juventus kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Juventus?
Genoa 2 - 1 Juventus.
Where is Genoa vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Juventus part of?
Genoa vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 17% chance of winning, Juventus a 55% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Genoa and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Juventus?
Record (1 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 0 | Juventus 1W.
What form are Genoa and Juventus in?
Genoa (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Juventus (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.60x the league average against Juventus's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventus's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
17%
5.96
28%
3.60
55%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.4%
Away win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.21
1.50
Juventus xG
5.96
17%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
1.80
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
4%
26.77
27%
3.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 16.4 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Genoa and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Genoa and 1.50 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Juventus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, Genoa have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 3W 16D 16L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Juventus's form line: 20W 9D 6L from 35 games, 1.97 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Juventus are the form team by 1.26 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Genoa have posted 0.82 PPG from 17 outings (2W 8D 7L).
On the road, Juventus have gone 10W 5D 2L from 17 away games — 2.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.54 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Current Season
Juventus
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Juventus in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 3W 16D 16L in their last 35 games (0.71 PPG), while Juventus have gone 20W 9D 6L in their last 35 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Juventus away?
Juventus's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 0.82 PPG; Juventus away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Genoa or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Juventus in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Juventus runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Juventus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when Juventus won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genoa's record when hosting Juventus specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Genoa
2
Draws
5
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Juventus?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 1, Juventus have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Juventus 2-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 41%, Juventus 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Genoa) and 53% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Genoa have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Juventus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Genoa's games and 71% of Juventus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genoa vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Genoa's recent games and 53% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Juventus tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Juventus in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genoa defy the odds to beat Juventus 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Juventus 2-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.71 xG and Juventus 1.50 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.60 / defence 1.04 against Juventus attack 1.09 / defence 1.06, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 17% | Draw 28% | Juventus 55%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Genoa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 40%, Juventus 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Juventus's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Genoa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm. Juventus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.