Genoa 3-3 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Genoa host Hellas Verona at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Genoa have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 1W 1D 3L from 5 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Hellas Verona have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Genoa) versus 0.80 (Hellas Verona). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Genoa in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 80%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Genoa 80% and Hellas Verona 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Genoa 100% | Hellas Verona 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.28 xG and Hellas Verona 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.892 / defence 1.142 | Hellas Verona attack 0.716 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.602. Hellas Verona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Genoa games / 5 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 36% | Draw 26% | Hellas Verona 37%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Hellas Verona 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hellas Verona at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.8 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 80% | Hellas Verona 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 36% | Draw 26% | Hellas Verona 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Genoa 1.28 / Hellas Verona 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.892 / def 1.142 | Hellas Verona attack 0.716 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.602 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Hellas Verona xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Genoa vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Hellas Verona?
Genoa 3 - 3 Hellas Verona.
Where is Genoa vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Hellas Verona part of?
Genoa vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 36% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Genoa and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Hellas Verona?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genoa and Hellas Verona in?
Genoa (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Hellas Verona (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Genoa's attack rating (0.89) and Hellas Verona's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
36%
2.76
26%
3.79
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.59
1.31
Hellas Verona xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
10%
10.22
10%
9.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Genoa and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Genoa and 1.31 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Genoa's recent record stands at 1W 1D 3L from 5 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hellas Verona, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 3L across 5 games — 0.80 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hellas Verona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 0.80 PPG, Hellas Verona on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.60 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genoa have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Hellas Verona in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Early Season
Hellas Verona
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Hellas Verona runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Genoa go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Genoa's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Genoa
2
Draws
2
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Hellas Verona?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 4, Hellas Verona have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Hellas Verona?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Genoa at 80%, Hellas Verona at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Genoa and 80% for Hellas Verona. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Genoa's games and 80% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genoa vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Genoa's matches and 80% of Hellas Verona's.
Do Genoa and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa and Hellas Verona share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 6, as Genoa and Hellas Verona drew 3-3 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.28 xG and Hellas Verona 1.31 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hellas Verona outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.89 / defence 1.14 against Hellas Verona attack 0.72 / defence 1.24, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 36% | Draw 26% | Hellas Verona 37%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 90% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 100%, Hellas Verona 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 0.80 PPG, Hellas Verona 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Genoa scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Hellas Verona scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.