Genoa 1-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Frosinone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Genoa host Frosinone at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 30 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Genoa — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Genoa have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Frosinone have recorded 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Frosinone away from home: 0W 1D 9L from their last 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Genoa are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Genoa's games and 70% of Frosinone's (from Genoa's last 10 home games and Frosinone's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Genoa, 2 for Frosinone and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Nov 2023, ended Genoa 1–2 Frosinone — a Frosinone win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Genoa in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Frosinone in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 46% versus Frosinone 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 40% | Frosinone 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Genoa surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Frosinone have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 2.08 xG and Frosinone 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.965 / defence 1.150 | Frosinone attack 0.768 / defence 1.578. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.233. Frosinone's defence rating of 1.578 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Genoa's projected output up. Frosinone's attack rating of 0.768 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. Data: built from Genoa's last 29 games and Frosinone's last 29.
Result probabilities: Genoa 60% | Draw 22% | Frosinone 19%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 1.68 | Draw 4.65 | Frosinone 5.31. The model has a clear lean to Genoa (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Genoa's last 10 home games and Frosinone's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Genoa 60% (last 10 home games) | Frosinone 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie A, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 60% | Draw 22% | Frosinone 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Genoa 2.08 / Frosinone 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.965 / def 1.150 | Frosinone attack 0.768 / def 1.578 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Genoa (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Frosinone xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genoa vs Frosinone FAQs
What time does Genoa vs Frosinone kick off?
Genoa vs Frosinone kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Frosinone?
Genoa 1 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Genoa vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Frosinone part of?
Genoa vs Frosinone is a Serie A fixture (matchday 30) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 60% chance of winning, Frosinone a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Genoa and Frosinone will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Genoa vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Genoa's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (1.58x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Genoa's last 29 games and Frosinone's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
60%
1.68
22%
4.65
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Genoa xG
Total xG
3.16
1.09
Frosinone xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
13%
7.96
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
2%
42.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genoa vs Frosinone Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Genoa and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Genoa and 1.09 for Frosinone, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Frosinone?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Genoa come into this having played 67 games, going 29W 21D 17L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 1.55 PPG from 67 outings (30W 14D 23L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 1.61 PPG, Frosinone on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Genoa's home form reads 17W 11D 5L across their last 33 home games, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.15 points per game from their last 33 away games (10W 8D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Frosinone's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.49 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Current Season
Frosinone
Current Season
Genoa (Home) vs Frosinone (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genoa
Current Season
Frosinone
Current Season
❓ Genoa vs Frosinone Form FAQs
What form are Genoa and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 29W 21D 17L in their last 67 games (1.61 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 30W 14D 23L in their last 67 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Frosinone away?
Genoa's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.88 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Genoa or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Frosinone in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2022. They cover more than one competition — Serie B, Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Genoa's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Genoa
2
Draws
2
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Genoa vs Frosinone H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Frosinone?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Genoa have won 1, Frosinone have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Frosinone last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Genoa 1-1 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 42%, Frosinone 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Genoa) and 48% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Frosinone in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genoa vs Frosinone Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genoa and Frosinone matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Genoa's recent matches and 58% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genoa and Frosinone matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Genoa's recent games and 48% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Frosinone matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Genoa's recent matches and 76% of Frosinone's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa and Frosinone share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa and Frosinone finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 2.08 xG and Frosinone 1.09 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Genoa fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Frosinone attack 0.77 / defence 1.58, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 60% | Draw 22% | Frosinone 19%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 40%, Frosinone 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Frosinone's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.61 PPG, Frosinone 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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