Genoa 1-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Genoa at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Empoli encounter.

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Analysis

Empoli make the trip to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to face Genoa in Serie A (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Sunday 2 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time.

Form

Genoa (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Genoa's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Empoli have collected 0.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Empoli away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Genoa's 1.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Empoli's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Genoa edge it 1 wins to 0, with 4 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 28 Dec 2024, ended Genoa 2–1 Empoli — a Genoa win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 52% versus Empoli 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 41% | Empoli 38%). Note also that Empoli surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Genoa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.70 xG and Empoli 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.926 / defence 0.883 | Empoli attack 0.968 / defence 1.401. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.204. Empoli's defence rating of 1.401 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Genoa's projected output up. Data: built from Genoa's last 64 games and Empoli's last 64.

Result probabilities: Genoa 51% | Draw 27% | Empoli 21%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 1.94 | Draw 3.70 | Empoli 4.66. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Genoa's last 10 home games and Empoli's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Genoa 40% (last 10 home games) | Empoli 80% (last 10 away games).

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