Genoa vs AS Roma – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Genoa face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 14 March 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Genoa (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genoa at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Genoa are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, AS Roma are the stronger side — 1.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Genoa, 4 for AS Roma and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with Genoa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 50% versus AS Roma 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 50% | AS Roma 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.97 xG and AS Roma 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.914 / defence 1.104 | AS Roma attack 1.362 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. AS Roma have an above-average attack strength of 1.362 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Genoa games / 40 AS Roma games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Genoa 20% | Draw 22% | AS Roma 58%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 5.00 | Draw 4.55 | AS Roma 1.72. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Genoa 50% | AS Roma 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Mar 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 20% | Draw 22% | AS Roma 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Genoa 0.97 / AS Roma 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.914 / def 1.104 | AS Roma attack 1.362 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.85
AS Roma xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs AS Roma kick off?
Genoa vs AS Roma is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 14 March 2027 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Where is Genoa vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs AS Roma part of?
Genoa vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 20% chance of winning, AS Roma a 58% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Genoa and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and AS Roma?
Record (8 meetings): Genoa 2W | Draws 2 | AS Roma 4W.
What form are Genoa and AS Roma in?
Genoa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. AS Roma (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Genoa's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.36x) against Genoa's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
20%
5.12
22%
4.45
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.83
1.85
AS Roma xG
5.12
20%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
16%
6.39
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
3%
32.71
22%
4.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Genoa and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Genoa and 1.85 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs AS Roma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genoa come into this having played 40 games, going 10W 11D 19L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.98 PPG from 40 outings (25W 4D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of Genoa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Genoa's home form reads 6W 4D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.70 points per game from 20 outings (11W 1D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Genoa are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.68 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 10W 11D 19L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 25W 4D 11L in their last 40 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.10 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Genoa or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, AS Roma in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genoa won 4-1 on 28 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Genoa
2
Draws
4
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and AS Roma?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 2, AS Roma have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Genoa 2-1 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 45%, AS Roma 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Genoa) and 45% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 40%; Genoa have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Genoa's recent matches and 40% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Genoa's recent games and 45% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and AS Roma tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.