Frosinone vs Udinese – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Udinese at 53%, yet in-form Frosinone provide a compelling counter-argument — this Frosinone vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Benito Stirpe plays host to Frosinone versus Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 4 April 2027 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Frosinone have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Frosinone have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Benito Stirpe this season.
Udinese's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Udinese's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form ledger tips toward Frosinone. A 1.00 PPG lead over Udinese (2.50 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Frosinone lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Udinese winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Udinese half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 52% versus Udinese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 60% | Udinese 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 0.95 xG and Udinese 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 0.730 / defence 1.090 | Udinese attack 1.216 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Frosinone's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Udinese have an above-average attack strength of 1.216 — the away xG of 1.64 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 2 Frosinone games / 40 Udinese games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Frosinone 22% | Draw 25% | Udinese 53%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 4.55 | Draw 4.00 | Udinese 1.89. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Frosinone (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Frosinone 50% | Udinese 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Apr 2027, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 22% | Draw 25% | Udinese 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Frosinone 0.95 / Udinese 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 0.730 / def 1.090 | Udinese attack 1.216 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Udinese (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Udinese xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Udinese kick off?
Frosinone vs Udinese is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 4 April 2027 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
Where is Frosinone vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Udinese part of?
Frosinone vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 22% chance of winning, Udinese a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Frosinone and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Udinese?
Record (2 meetings): Frosinone 0W | Draws 1 | Udinese 1W.
What form are Frosinone and Udinese in?
Frosinone (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Udinese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Frosinone's attack rating (0.73) and Udinese's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (1.22x) against Frosinone's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
22%
4.57
25%
4.05
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.58
1.64
Udinese xG
4.57
22%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
19%
5.13
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
4%
23.45
21%
4.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 12.3 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.64 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Frosinone have picked up 2.10 PPG on a 24W 12D 4L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Frosinone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Udinese's form line: 15W 9D 16L from 40 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Frosinone are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Udinese.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Frosinone have posted 2.05 PPG from 20 outings (12W 5D 3L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 9W 3D 8L from 20 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Frosinone are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.23 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Early Season
Udinese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Udinese in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 24W 12D 4L in their last 40 games (2.10 PPG), while Udinese have gone 15W 9D 16L in their last 40 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Udinese away?
Frosinone's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 2.05 PPG; Udinese away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Udinese in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Frosinone
1
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Udinese?
From 2 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 0, Udinese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2024, when Frosinone 0-1 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 45%, Udinese 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Frosinone and 55% for Udinese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Frosinone's recent matches and 55% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Frosinone's matches and 55% of Udinese's.
Do Frosinone and Udinese tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Udinese in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.