Frosinone 2-3 Monza – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Frosinone at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Frosinone face Monza.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Frosinone welcome Monza to Stadio Benito Stirpe in Serie A (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 6 January 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Frosinone stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Frosinone's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Frosinone are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Monza have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Monza's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Frosinone 0.70 PPG, Monza 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Frosinone have won 1, Monza 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Apr 2022, ended Frosinone 4–1 Monza — a Frosinone win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Frosinone in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Monza in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 52% versus Monza 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 52% | Monza 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.31 xG and Monza 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.013 / defence 1.171 | Monza attack 0.827 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.043. Data: built from Frosinone's last 18 games and Monza's last 56.
Result probabilities: Frosinone 43% | Draw 29% | Monza 28%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.34 | Draw 3.42 | Monza 3.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Frosinone are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Frosinone 90% (last 10 home games) | Monza 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Saturday 6 January 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 43% | Draw 29% | Monza 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Frosinone 1.31 / Monza 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.013 / def 1.171 | Monza attack 0.827 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Monza xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frosinone vs Monza FAQs
What time does Frosinone vs Monza kick off?
Frosinone vs Monza kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 6 January 2024 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Monza?
Frosinone 2 - 3 Monza.
Where is Frosinone vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Monza part of?
Frosinone vs Monza is a Serie A fixture (matchday 19) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 43% chance of winning, Monza a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Frosinone and Monza will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Frosinone vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Frosinone's attack rating (1.01) and Monza's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Frosinone's last 18 games and Monza's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
43%
2.34
29%
3.42
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.32
1.01
Monza xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
8%
13.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frosinone vs Monza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.01 for Monza, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Frosinone's recent record stands at 29W 12D 15L from 56 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Monza, meanwhile, have gone 19W 17D 20L across 56 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Frosinone by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Monza heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 19W 5D 4L from their last 28 home games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Frosinone are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Monza's away record stands at 9W 8D 11L across their last 28 away games, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Frosinone are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.14 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Monza
Blended
Frosinone (Home) vs Monza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Frosinone
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frosinone vs Monza Form FAQs
What form are Frosinone and Monza in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 29W 12D 15L in their last 56 games (1.77 PPG), while Monza have gone 19W 17D 20L in their last 56 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Monza away?
Frosinone's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 2.21 PPG; Monza away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Monza in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. They cover more than one competition — Serie B, Serie A. The most recent was on 17 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Apr 2022, when Frosinone won Frosinone 4-1 Monza.
Frosinone's record when hosting Monza specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Frosinone
1
Draws
3
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frosinone vs Monza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Monza?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Frosinone have won 2, Monza have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Monza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 January 2026: Monza 2-2 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 46%, Monza 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Frosinone) and 43% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Monza in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frosinone vs Monza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Frosinone and Monza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Frosinone's recent matches and 43% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Frosinone and Monza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Frosinone's recent games and 43% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Monza matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Frosinone's recent matches and 71% of Monza's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Monza defy the odds to beat Frosinone 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Frosinone 2-3 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.31 xG and Monza 1.01 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Monza outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.01 / defence 1.17 against Monza attack 0.83 / defence 0.95, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 43% | Draw 29% | Monza 28%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Monza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 52%, Monza 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Monza's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with Monza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Frosinone (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie A fixtures — matchday 19
All Serie A fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →