Fiorentina 5-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Artemio Franchi plays host to Fiorentina versus Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 21 December 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fiorentina have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
Udinese (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Udinese have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Udinese are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Fiorentina, 3 for Udinese and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 3–2 with Fiorentina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 58% versus Udinese 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 60% | Udinese 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.25 xG and Udinese 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 0.932 / defence 1.297 | Udinese attack 1.001 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.103. Data: 53 Fiorentina games / 53 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 33% | Draw 26% | Udinese 41%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Udinese 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 80% | Udinese 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Dec 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 33% | Draw 26% | Udinese 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Fiorentina 1.25 / Udinese 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 0.932 / def 1.297 | Udinese attack 1.001 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.217 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Udinese (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Udinese xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Udinese kick off?
Fiorentina vs Udinese kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 21 December 2025 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Udinese?
Fiorentina 5 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Fiorentina vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Udinese part of?
Fiorentina vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 33% chance of winning, Udinese a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Fiorentina and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Udinese?
Record (8 meetings): Fiorentina 4W | Draws 1 | Udinese 3W.
What form are Fiorentina and Udinese in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Udinese (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fiorentina's attack at 0.93x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (1.00x) against Fiorentina's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
33%
3.05
26%
3.87
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.68
1.43
Udinese xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
8%
12.80
12%
8.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.43 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fiorentina come into this having played 53 games, going 19W 14D 20L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.23 PPG from 53 outings (18W 11D 24L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.23 for Udinese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Fiorentina's home form reads 12W 6D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.15 points per game from 26 outings (8W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fiorentina are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.08 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Udinese in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 19W 14D 20L in their last 53 games (1.34 PPG), while Udinese have gone 18W 11D 24L in their last 53 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Udinese away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.62 PPG; Udinese away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won 0-4 on 27 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
1
Draws
4
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 5, Udinese have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Udinese 3-0 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Udinese?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 62%, Udinese 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Fiorentina) and 46% (Udinese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Udinese in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Fiorentina's games and 62% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Fiorentina's matches and 46% of Udinese's.
Do Fiorentina and Udinese tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Udinese in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fiorentina run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Udinese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Udinese 5-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.25 xG and Udinese 1.43 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Fiorentina beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 0.93 / defence 1.30 against Udinese attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 33% | Draw 26% | Udinese 41%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Fiorentina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 60%, Udinese 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Udinese's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.34 PPG, Udinese 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Udinese (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.