Fiorentina 3-0 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Inter encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fiorentina host Inter at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A (matchday 14). Kick-off is Thursday 6 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Fiorentina — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Fiorentina have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Fiorentina are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Inter stand at 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Inter's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Inter are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Fiorentina have won 1, Inter 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Jan 2024, ended Fiorentina 0–1 Inter — a Inter win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fiorentina trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Inter trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 80%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 57% versus Inter 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 55% | Inter 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fiorentina surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Inter have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 80% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 0.87 xG and Inter 2.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.098 / defence 1.024 | Inter attack 1.632 / defence 0.583. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.317. Inter bring a tight defence (rating 0.583, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Fiorentina's projected output down. Inter have an above-average attack rating of 1.632, which lifts their away xG to 2.20. Data: built from Fiorentina's last 60 games and Inter's last 60.
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 12% | Draw 23% | Inter 66%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 8.60 | Draw 4.40 | Inter 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Inter (66%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Inter as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Fiorentina's last 10 home games and Inter's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fiorentina 80% (last 10 home games) | Inter 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, matchday 14 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Thursday 6 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 12% | Draw 23% | Inter 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Fiorentina 0.87 / Inter 2.20 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.098 / def 1.024 | Inter attack 1.632 / def 0.583 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Inter (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
2.20
Inter xG
54%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fiorentina vs Inter FAQs
What time does Fiorentina vs Inter kick off?
Fiorentina vs Inter kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Thursday 6 February 2025 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Inter?
Fiorentina 3 - 0 Inter.
Where is Fiorentina vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Inter part of?
Fiorentina vs Inter is a Serie A fixture (matchday 14) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 12% chance of winning, Inter a 66% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Fiorentina and Inter will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fiorentina vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (1.10) and Inter's defence rating (0.58), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 2.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fiorentina's last 60 games and Inter's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
12%
8.60
23%
4.40
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
3.07
2.20
Inter xG
8.60
12%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
11%
9.03
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
1%
77.60
27%
3.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fiorentina vs Inter Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Fiorentina and 2.20 for Inter, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Inter?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fiorentina come into this having played 60 games, going 28W 15D 17L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Inter sit at 2.42 PPG from 60 outings (44W 13D 3L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five.
Inter carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Fiorentina's home form reads 16W 8D 6L across their last 30 home games, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Inter have taken 2.50 points per game from their last 30 away games (23W 6D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fiorentina are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.42 scored and 0.68 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Inter
Blended
Fiorentina (Home) vs Inter (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fiorentina
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Fiorentina vs Inter Form FAQs
What form are Fiorentina and Inter in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 28W 15D 17L in their last 60 games (1.65 PPG), while Inter have gone 44W 13D 3L in their last 60 (2.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.87 PPG; Inter away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Inter in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Sep 2023, when Inter won Inter 4-0 Fiorentina.
Fiorentina's record when hosting Inter specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Fiorentina
2
Draws
6
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Fiorentina vs Inter H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Inter?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Fiorentina have won 2, Inter have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Inter last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Inter 2-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 67%, Inter 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Fiorentina and 60% for Inter. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fiorentina vs Inter Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fiorentina and Inter matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 40% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fiorentina and Inter matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Fiorentina's matches and 60% of Inter's.
Do Fiorentina and Inter matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 77% of Inter's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fiorentina run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Inter.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Inter 3-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 0.87 xG and Inter 2.20 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Fiorentina beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Inter landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.10 / defence 1.02 against Inter attack 1.63 / defence 0.58, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 12% | Draw 23% | Inter 66%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Fiorentina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 55%, Inter 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Inter's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.65. Form was overturned, with Fiorentina winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Inter (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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