Fiorentina 2-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 37 as Fiorentina welcome AS Roma to Stadio Artemio Franchi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AS Roma — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Fiorentina) versus 1.30 (AS Roma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fiorentina register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, AS Roma in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Fiorentina, 2 for AS Roma and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2023, ended 0–2 with AS Roma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fiorentina in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
AS Roma in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 53% versus AS Roma 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 50% | AS Roma 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.40 xG and AS Roma 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.129 / defence 0.860 | AS Roma attack 0.872 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.158. Data: 74 Fiorentina games / 74 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 49% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 23%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | AS Roma 4.35. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Fiorentina 60% | AS Roma 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 49% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Fiorentina 1.40 / AS Roma 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.129 / def 0.860 | AS Roma attack 0.872 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
0.87
AS Roma xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs AS Roma kick off?
Fiorentina vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Fiorentina 2 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Fiorentina vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs AS Roma part of?
Fiorentina vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 49% chance of winning, AS Roma a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Fiorentina and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and AS Roma?
Record (3 meetings): Fiorentina 1W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 2W.
What form are Fiorentina and AS Roma in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. AS Roma (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fiorentina's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
49%
2.05
28%
3.54
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.27
0.87
AS Roma xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
6%
17.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.6 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Fiorentina and 0.87 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 74 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 32W 16D 26L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
AS Roma's form line: 35W 18D 21L from 74 games, 1.66 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.51 PPG, AS Roma on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 1.92 PPG from 37 outings (21W 8D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 15W 9D 13L from 37 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fiorentina are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.43 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 32W 16D 26L in their last 74 games (1.51 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 35W 18D 21L in their last 74 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or AS Roma away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.92 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, AS Roma in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Fiorentina won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fiorentina's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fiorentina
2
Draws
5
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 3, AS Roma have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 49%, AS Roma 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Fiorentina) and 51% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 60% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Fiorentina's recent games and 51% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and AS Roma tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out AS Roma 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat AS Roma 2-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.40 xG and AS Roma 0.87 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.13 / defence 0.86 against AS Roma attack 0.87 / defence 0.93, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 49% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 23%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 50%, AS Roma 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.51 PPG, AS Roma 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.