Empoli 1-0 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 13 as Empoli welcome Sassuolo to Stadio Carlo Castellani. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Empoli stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Empoli have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sassuolo — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Empoli 1.00 PPG, Sassuolo 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Empoli, 1 for Sassuolo and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2022, ended 1–5 with Sassuolo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Empoli trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sassuolo trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Empoli 62% and Sassuolo 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 50% | Sassuolo 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.27 xG and Sassuolo 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.761 / defence 1.129 | Sassuolo attack 0.847 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.190. Empoli's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sassuolo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Empoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Empoli games / 50 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 38% | Draw 30% | Sassuolo 32%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Sassuolo 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 60% | Sassuolo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 38% | Draw 30% | Sassuolo 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Empoli 1.27 / Sassuolo 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.761 / def 1.129 | Sassuolo attack 0.847 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Empoli (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Sassuolo xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Sassuolo kick off?
Empoli vs Sassuolo kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Sassuolo?
Empoli 1 - 0 Sassuolo.
Where is Empoli vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Sassuolo part of?
Empoli vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 38% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Empoli and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Sassuolo?
Record (2 meetings): Empoli 1W | Draws 0 | Sassuolo 1W.
What form are Empoli and Sassuolo in?
Empoli (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Sassuolo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Empoli's attack at 0.76x the league average against Sassuolo's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
38%
2.62
30%
3.31
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.41
1.14
Sassuolo xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
12%
8.19
9%
11.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.2 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Empoli and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Empoli and 1.14 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Empoli's recent record stands at 12W 16D 22L from 50 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sassuolo, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 19L across 50 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.04 PPG, Sassuolo on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 5W 7D 13L from 25 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sassuolo's away record stands at 8W 7D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Empoli are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.56 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Sassuolo in 70%.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 12W 16D 22L in their last 50 games (1.04 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 17W 14D 19L in their last 50 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Sassuolo away?
Sassuolo's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.88 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Empoli and Sassuolo runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2022, when Sassuolo won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Empoli's record when hosting Sassuolo specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Empoli
0
Draws
3
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Sassuolo?
From 6 meetings on record, Empoli have won 3, Sassuolo have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Sassuolo 2-3 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Empoli at 76%, Sassuolo at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Empoli and 80% for Sassuolo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Sassuolo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Empoli's games and 72% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Empoli's matches and 80% of Sassuolo's.
Do Empoli and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Empoli edge out Sassuolo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Sassuolo 1-0 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.27 xG and Sassuolo 1.14 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sassuolo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.76 / defence 1.13 against Sassuolo attack 0.85 / defence 1.23, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 38% | Draw 30% | Sassuolo 32%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 50%, Sassuolo 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Sassuolo's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.04 PPG, Sassuolo 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.