Empoli 1-0 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Empoli host Sampdoria at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 16 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Empoli — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Empoli are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Empoli have won 0, Sampdoria 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with Sampdoria winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Empoli in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 60% versus Sampdoria 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 47% | Sampdoria 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.35 xG and Sampdoria 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.820 / defence 0.975 | Sampdoria attack 0.873 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.154. Data: 55 Empoli games / 55 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 45% | Draw 29% | Sampdoria 27%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Sampdoria 3.70. Empoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 50% | Sampdoria 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Monday 16 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 45% | Draw 29% | Sampdoria 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Empoli 1.35 / Sampdoria 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.820 / def 0.975 | Sampdoria attack 0.873 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Empoli (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Sampdoria xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Sampdoria kick off?
Empoli vs Sampdoria kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 16 January 2023 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Sampdoria?
Empoli 1 - 0 Sampdoria.
Where is Empoli vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Sampdoria part of?
Empoli vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 45% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Empoli and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Sampdoria?
Record (2 meetings): Empoli 0W | Draws 0 | Sampdoria 2W.
What form are Empoli and Sampdoria in?
Empoli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Empoli's attack rating (0.82) and Sampdoria's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.48
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.33
0.98
Sampdoria xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
7%
14.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Empoli and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Empoli and 0.98 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Empoli have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 14W 18D 23L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sampdoria's form line: 12W 9D 34L from 55 games, 0.82 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.09 PPG, Sampdoria on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Empoli have posted 1.04 PPG from 27 outings (7W 7D 13L).
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 6W 4D 17L from 27 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Empoli are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.98 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 14W 18D 23L in their last 55 games (1.09 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 12W 9D 34L in their last 55 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Sampdoria away?
Empoli's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.04 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2021, when Sampdoria won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Empoli's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Empoli
2
Draws
3
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Sampdoria?
From 6 meetings on record, Empoli have won 1, Sampdoria have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Sampdoria 1-0 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Sampdoria?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 70%, Sampdoria 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Empoli) and 52% (Sampdoria). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Empoli's games and 41% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Empoli's matches and 52% of Sampdoria's.
Do Empoli and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Empoli edge out Sampdoria 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Sampdoria 1-0 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.35 xG and Sampdoria 0.98 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sampdoria landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.82 / defence 0.97 against Sampdoria attack 0.87 / defence 1.13, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 45% | Draw 29% | Sampdoria 27%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 47%, Sampdoria 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Sampdoria's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.09 PPG, Sampdoria 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.