Empoli 1-2 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Empoli face Hellas Verona.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Empoli host Hellas Verona at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena in Serie A (matchday 38). Kick-off is Sunday 25 May 2025 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Empoli — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Empoli at home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Hellas Verona have recorded 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Empoli at 0.90 PPG versus Hellas Verona's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Empoli, 3 for Hellas Verona and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Dec 2024, ended Empoli 4–1 Hellas Verona — a Empoli win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Empoli in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 49% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 43% versus Hellas Verona 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 39% | Hellas Verona 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 0.88 xG and Hellas Verona 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.728 / defence 1.174 | Hellas Verona attack 0.784 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.143. Empoli's attack rating of 0.728 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Hellas Verona's attack rating of 0.784 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from Empoli's last 75 games and Hellas Verona's last 75.
Result probabilities: Empoli 29% | Draw 33% | Hellas Verona 38%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.47 | Draw 3.03 | Hellas Verona 2.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hellas Verona at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 70% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Empoli's last 10 home games and Hellas Verona's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Empoli 50% (last 10 home games) | Hellas Verona 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, matchday 38 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 29% | Draw 33% | Hellas Verona 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Empoli 0.88 / Hellas Verona 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.728 / def 1.174 | Hellas Verona attack 0.784 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Hellas Verona xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Empoli vs Hellas Verona FAQs
What time does Empoli vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Empoli vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Hellas Verona?
Empoli 1 - 2 Hellas Verona.
Where is Empoli vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Hellas Verona part of?
Empoli vs Hellas Verona is a Serie A fixture (matchday 38) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 29% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Empoli and Hellas Verona will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Empoli vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Empoli's attack rating (0.73) and Hellas Verona's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Empoli's last 75 games and Hellas Verona's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
29%
3.47
33%
3.03
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Empoli xG
Total xG
1.93
1.05
Hellas Verona xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
16%
6.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 15.3 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Empoli vs Hellas Verona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Empoli and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Empoli and 1.05 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 75 outings, Empoli have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 15W 22D 38L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Hellas Verona's form line: 18W 18D 39L from 75 games, 0.96 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 0.89 PPG, Hellas Verona on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Empoli have posted 0.89 PPG from their last 37 home games (7W 12D 18L).
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 8W 7D 22L from their last 37 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Empoli are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.93 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Current Season
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Empoli (Home) vs Hellas Verona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Empoli
Current Season
Hellas Verona
Current Season
❓ Empoli vs Hellas Verona Form FAQs
What form are Empoli and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 15W 22D 38L in their last 75 games (0.89 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 18W 18D 39L in their last 75 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Hellas Verona away?
Empoli's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.89 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 25 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Dec 2024, when Empoli won Hellas Verona 1-4 Empoli.
Empoli's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Empoli
3
Draws
4
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Empoli vs Hellas Verona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Hellas Verona?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Empoli have won 1, Hellas Verona have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Hellas Verona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 May 2025: Empoli 1-2 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Hellas Verona?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Empoli see a goal before the break in 49% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 30%, Hellas Verona 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Empoli) and 38% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Empoli have failed to score in 60% of games; Hellas Verona in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Empoli vs Hellas Verona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Empoli and Hellas Verona matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Empoli's recent matches and 46% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Empoli and Hellas Verona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Empoli's recent games and 38% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Hellas Verona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 49% of Empoli's recent matches and 62% of Hellas Verona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hellas Verona edge out Empoli 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Empoli 1-2 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.88 xG and Hellas Verona 1.05 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hellas Verona outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.73 / defence 1.17 against Hellas Verona attack 0.78 / defence 0.98, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 29% | Draw 33% | Hellas Verona 38%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 39%, Hellas Verona 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 0.89 PPG, Hellas Verona 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hellas Verona win broke the near-deadlock. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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