Empoli 2-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Carlo Castellani to take on Empoli. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Empoli have gone 1W 1D 5L this season (7 games, 0.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.57 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Carlo Castellani this season.
Fiorentina — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina away from home this season: 3W 0D 4L from 7 away games — 1.29 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Empoli) versus 1.50 (Fiorentina). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Empoli trading profile (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Fiorentina trading profile (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 62% versus Fiorentina 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Empoli 69% | Fiorentina 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.10 xG and Fiorentina 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.856 / defence 1.626 | Fiorentina attack 0.619 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.407. Data: 13 Empoli games / 13 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 29% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 44%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Fiorentina 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 71% | Fiorentina 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 29% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Empoli 1.10 / Fiorentina 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.856 / def 1.626 | Fiorentina attack 0.619 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Fiorentina xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Fiorentina kick off?
Empoli vs Fiorentina kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Empoli 2 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is Empoli vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Fiorentina part of?
Empoli vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 29% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Empoli and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Fiorentina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Empoli and Fiorentina in?
Empoli (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Empoli's attack at 0.86x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
29%
3.43
27%
3.77
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.51
1.42
Fiorentina xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
7%
14.12
15%
6.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Empoli and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Empoli and 1.42 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Empoli's recent record stands at 5W 1D 7L from 13 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 7W 0D 6L across 13 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.23 PPG, Fiorentina on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 1W 1D 5L from 7 games — 0.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.23 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 3W 0D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Empoli are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.54 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 5W 1D 7L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 7W 0D 6L in their last 13 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Fiorentina away?
Fiorentina's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.57 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Empoli's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Empoli
4
Draws
2
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Fiorentina?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 2, Fiorentina have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Fiorentina 2-1 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Fiorentina see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 71%, Fiorentina 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Empoli and 43% for Fiorentina. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Empoli have failed to score in 29% of games; Fiorentina in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Empoli's games and 43% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Empoli's matches and 43% of Fiorentina's.
Do Empoli and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Empoli defy the odds to beat Fiorentina 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Fiorentina 2-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.10 xG and Fiorentina 1.42 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Empoli beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.86 / defence 1.63 against Fiorentina attack 0.62 / defence 1.01, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 29% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 44%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Empoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 69%, Fiorentina 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Fiorentina's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.23 PPG, Fiorentina 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.57 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.