Empoli 2-4 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Carlo Castellani plays host to Empoli versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 23 January 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Empoli have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Empoli have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AS Roma (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, AS Roma have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Empoli have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, AS Roma in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Empoli, 1 for AS Roma and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with AS Roma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Empoli 73% and AS Roma 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 68% | AS Roma 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.64 xG and AS Roma 2.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 1.048 / defence 1.661 | AS Roma attack 0.980 / defence 1.349. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.501. AS Roma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.349 — this is suppressing Empoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Empoli games / 22 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 25% | Draw 21% | AS Roma 55%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 4.00 | Draw 4.76 | AS Roma 1.82. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.08. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.08 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 2.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 80% | AS Roma 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 25% | Draw 21% | AS Roma 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 74% | xG Empoli 1.64 / AS Roma 2.44 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 1.048 / def 1.661 | AS Roma attack 0.980 / def 1.349 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.501 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
2.44
AS Roma xG
74%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs AS Roma kick off?
Empoli vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs AS Roma?
Empoli 2 - 4 AS Roma.
Where is Empoli vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs AS Roma part of?
Empoli vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 25% chance of winning, AS Roma a 55% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Empoli and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and AS Roma?
Record (1 meetings): Empoli 0W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Empoli and AS Roma in?
Empoli (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Empoli's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.98x) against Empoli's defence (1.66x) — and the away total comes out at 2.44.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.6%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
25%
4.07
21%
4.86
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Empoli xG
Total xG
4.08
2.44
AS Roma xG
4.07
25%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.89
Clean Sheet
9%
11.52
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
2%
46.83
11%
9.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Empoli and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Empoli and 2.44 for AS Roma, a combined total of 4.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs AS Roma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Empoli's recent record stands at 8W 5D 9L from 22 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 11W 2D 9L across 22 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Empoli against 1.59 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 3W 1D 6L from 10 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 4W 0D 6L across 10 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Empoli are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.64 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Defensively: AS Roma in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 8W 5D 9L in their last 22 games (1.32 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 11W 2D 9L in their last 22 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.00 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Empoli or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, AS Roma in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 7-0 on 17 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Empoli
0
Draws
6
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and AS Roma?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 2, AS Roma have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Empoli 0-1 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Empoli, 60% for AS Roma — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 90% for Empoli and 70% for AS Roma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Empoli's games and 60% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 90% of Empoli's matches and 70% of AS Roma's.
Do Empoli and AS Roma tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Empoli 2-4 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.64 xG and AS Roma 2.44 xG, a combined 4.08. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. AS Roma outscored their 2.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 1.05 / defence 1.66 against AS Roma attack 0.98 / defence 1.35, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 25% | Draw 21% | AS Roma 55%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 68%, AS Roma 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.32 PPG, AS Roma 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.