Cremonese 0-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giovanni Zini plays host to Cremonese versus Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 30 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cremonese's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Cremonese are significantly better at Stadio Giovanni Zini than their overall form suggests.
Udinese (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Udinese arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cremonese have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Udinese in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Udinese half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cremonese 59% and Udinese 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 51% | Udinese 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.69 xG and Udinese 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.576 / defence 1.440 | Udinese attack 1.236 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.157. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.576 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Udinese have an above-average attack strength of 1.236 — the away xG of 2.06 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Cremonese games / 49 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 11% | Draw 21% | Udinese 69%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 9.09 | Draw 4.76 | Udinese 1.45. The model has a clear lean to Udinese (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Udinese as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Cremonese 60% | Udinese 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 11% | Draw 21% | Udinese 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 44% | xG Cremonese 0.69 / Udinese 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.576 / def 1.440 | Udinese attack 1.236 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Udinese (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Udinese xG
44%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Udinese kick off?
Cremonese vs Udinese kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Udinese?
Cremonese 0 - 0 Udinese.
Where is Cremonese vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Udinese part of?
Cremonese vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 11% chance of winning, Udinese a 69% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cremonese and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Udinese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Udinese in?
Cremonese (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Udinese (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.58x the league average against Udinese's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (1.24x) against Cremonese's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 2.06.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 1-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
11%
9.31
21%
4.84
69%
1.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.75
2.06
Udinese xG
9.31
11%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
1.46
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
13%
7.85
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
1%
73.05
34%
2.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Cremonese and 2.06 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Udinese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Cremonese have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 20W 13D 16L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese's form line: 17W 17D 15L from 49 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Cremonese against 1.39 for Udinese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 1.67 PPG from 24 outings (11W 7D 6L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 8W 8D 8L from 24 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cremonese are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.65 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Udinese in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 20W 13D 16L in their last 49 games (1.49 PPG), while Udinese have gone 17W 17D 15L in their last 49 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Udinese away?
Cremonese's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.67 PPG; Udinese away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won 3-0 on 23 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cremonese
2
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Udinese?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Udinese have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Udinese 0-1 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 58%, Udinese 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cremonese) and 62% (Udinese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Cremonese's games and 58% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Cremonese's matches and 62% of Udinese's.
Do Cremonese and Udinese tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Udinese in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cremonese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 12, as Cremonese and Udinese drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.69 xG and Udinese 2.06 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Udinese landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.58 / defence 1.44 against Udinese attack 1.24 / defence 0.87, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 11% | Draw 21% | Udinese 69%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 51%, Udinese 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Udinese's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.49 PPG, Udinese 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.