Cremonese 2-3 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monza at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Monza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 18 as Cremonese welcome Monza to Stadio Giovanni Zini. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cremonese have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 1W 3D 6L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Monza — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Monza — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cremonese, 1 for Monza and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 3–2 with Cremonese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Monza in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 54% versus Monza 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 47% | Monza 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.81 xG and Monza 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.502 / defence 1.161 | Monza attack 0.766 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.115. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.502 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Cremonese games / 17 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 27% | Draw 35% | Monza 37%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.70 | Draw 2.86 | Monza 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.80 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 30% | Monza 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 27% | Draw 35% | Monza 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Cremonese 0.81 / Monza 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.502 / def 1.161 | Monza attack 0.766 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Monza (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Monza xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Monza kick off?
Cremonese vs Monza kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Monza?
Cremonese 2 - 3 Monza.
Where is Cremonese vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Monza part of?
Cremonese vs Monza is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 27% chance of winning, Monza a 37% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Cremonese and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Monza?
Record (2 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 0 | Monza 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Monza in?
Cremonese (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Monza (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.50x the league average against Monza's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
27%
3.65
35%
2.84
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Cremonese xG
Total xG
1.80
0.99
Monza xG
3.65
27%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
10%
9.85
17%
6.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 16.4 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.99 for Monza, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese's recent record stands at 20W 16D 19L from 55 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza, meanwhile, have gone 27W 10D 18L across 55 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.38 PPG, Monza on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 11W 9D 7L from 27 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Monza's away record stands at 9W 6D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monza's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.56 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Monza in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 20W 16D 19L in their last 55 games (1.38 PPG), while Monza have gone 27W 10D 18L in their last 55 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Monza away?
Cremonese's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.56 PPG; Monza away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Monza in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cremonese's record when hosting Monza specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cremonese
1
Draws
2
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Monza?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Monza have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Monza 1-1 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 52%, Monza 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Cremonese) and 52% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Cremonese have failed to score in 33% of games; Monza in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Cremonese's recent matches and 52% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cremonese's recent games and 52% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Monza tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Monza in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Monza edge out Cremonese 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Cremonese 2-3 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.81 xG and Monza 0.99 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Monza outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.50 / defence 1.16 against Monza attack 0.77 / defence 1.15, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 27% | Draw 35% | Monza 37%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 47%, Monza 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Monza's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.38 PPG, Monza 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monza win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.