Cremonese 1-3 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Atalanta encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Atalanta travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 April 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cremonese — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's home record at Stadio Giovanni Zini: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atalanta stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Atalanta — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cremonese have won 0, Atalanta 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Atalanta in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 57% versus Atalanta 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 49% | Atalanta 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.88 xG and Atalanta 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.687 / defence 1.345 | Atalanta attack 1.049 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.147. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Cremonese games / 65 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 20% | Draw 25% | Atalanta 55%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 5.00 | Draw 4.00 | Atalanta 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 40% | Atalanta 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 20% | Draw 25% | Atalanta 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Cremonese 0.88 / Atalanta 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.687 / def 1.345 | Atalanta attack 1.049 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Atalanta xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Atalanta kick off?
Cremonese vs Atalanta kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Atalanta?
Cremonese 1 - 3 Atalanta.
Where is Cremonese vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Atalanta part of?
Cremonese vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 20% chance of winning, Atalanta a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cremonese and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Atalanta?
Record (1 meetings): Cremonese 0W | Draws 1 | Atalanta 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Atalanta in?
Cremonese (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Atalanta (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cremonese's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Atalanta's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-2 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
20%
4.93
25%
4.03
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.49
1.62
Atalanta xG
4.93
20%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
4%
24.85
23%
4.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 13.4 | 10.8 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.62 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Atalanta?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese come into this having played 65 games, going 21W 19D 25L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atalanta sit at 1.60 PPG from 65 outings (29W 17D 19L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.26 PPG, Atalanta on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cremonese's home form reads 12W 9D 11L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Atalanta have taken 1.88 points per game from 32 outings (18W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.68 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 21W 19D 25L in their last 65 games (1.26 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 29W 17D 19L in their last 65 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.41 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cremonese's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cremonese
2
Draws
2
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Atalanta?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 0, Atalanta have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Atalanta 2-1 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 53%, Atalanta 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cremonese) and 47% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Atalanta in 34%; Cremonese have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Atalanta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Cremonese's recent matches and 47% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cremonese's recent games and 47% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Atalanta tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atalanta cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Cremonese 1-3 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.88 xG and Atalanta 1.62 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Atalanta outscored their 1.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.69 / defence 1.34 against Atalanta attack 1.05 / defence 0.99, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 20% | Draw 25% | Atalanta 55%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 49%, Atalanta 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Atalanta's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.26 PPG, Atalanta 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atalanta (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.