Cremonese 2-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 24 as Cremonese welcome AS Roma to Stadio Giovanni Zini. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 28 February 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 games at Stadio Giovanni Zini this term (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AS Roma — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AS Roma are 1.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cremonese, 1 for AS Roma and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with AS Roma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
AS Roma trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 56% versus AS Roma 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 49% | AS Roma 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.75 xG and AS Roma 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.631 / defence 1.365 | AS Roma attack 1.110 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.175. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.631 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Cremonese games / 61 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 15% | Draw 23% | AS Roma 62%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 6.67 | Draw 4.35 | AS Roma 1.61. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 30% | AS Roma 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Feb 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 15% | Draw 23% | AS Roma 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 44% | xG Cremonese 0.75 / AS Roma 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.631 / def 1.365 | AS Roma attack 1.110 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.78
AS Roma xG
44%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs AS Roma kick off?
Cremonese vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 28 February 2023 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs AS Roma?
Cremonese 2 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Cremonese vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs AS Roma part of?
Cremonese vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 15% chance of winning, AS Roma a 62% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cremonese and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and AS Roma?
Record (1 meetings): Cremonese 0W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Cremonese and AS Roma in?
Cremonese (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.63) and AS Roma's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-2 (12.7%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
15%
6.56
23%
4.40
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.7%
Away win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.53
1.78
AS Roma xG
6.56
15%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
17%
5.92
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
3%
38.87
29%
3.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 14.2 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Cremonese and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.78 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs AS Roma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cremonese's recent record stands at 20W 18D 23L from 61 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 31W 14D 16L across 61 games — 1.75 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cremonese heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 11W 9D 10L from 30 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 13W 7D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.46 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 20W 18D 23L in their last 61 games (1.28 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 31W 14D 16L in their last 61 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.40 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Cremonese or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, AS Roma in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cremonese and AS Roma runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2026, when AS Roma won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cremonese
0
Draws
3
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and AS Roma?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, AS Roma have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when AS Roma 3-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 53%, AS Roma 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cremonese) and 53% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Cremonese have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Cremonese's games and 63% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cremonese's recent games and 53% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and AS Roma tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cremonese defy the odds to beat AS Roma 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat AS Roma 2-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.75 xG and AS Roma 1.78 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.63 / defence 1.36 against AS Roma attack 1.11 / defence 0.93, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 15% | Draw 23% | AS Roma 62%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Cremonese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 49%, AS Roma 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Cremonese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.