Como 1-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Como at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Como vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 20 as Como welcome Bologna to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Como — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Como at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Como have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Como have won 0, Bologna 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Bologna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Como in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Bologna in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 52% versus Bologna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 41% | Bologna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.28 xG and Bologna 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 1.071 / defence 0.666 | Bologna attack 1.211 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.184. Bologna have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 0.95 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Como's defence rating of 0.666 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Como games / 56 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 44% | Draw 28% | Bologna 28%. Fair-value odds: Como 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Bologna 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Bologna lead the H2H ledger, but Como carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Como at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Como offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Como 40% | Bologna 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 44% | Draw 28% | Bologna 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Como 1.28 / Bologna 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 1.071 / def 0.666 | Bologna attack 1.211 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Como (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Como xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Bologna xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Bologna kick off?
Como vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 January 2026 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Bologna?
Como 1 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Como vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Bologna part of?
Como vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Como a 44% chance of winning, Bologna a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Como and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Bologna?
Record (3 meetings): Como 0W | Draws 1 | Bologna 2W.
What form are Como and Bologna in?
Como (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Bologna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Como's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Como's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
44%
2.27
28%
3.53
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Como xG
Total xG
2.24
0.95
Bologna xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
8%
13.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Como and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Como and 0.95 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Como have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 22W 16D 18L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna's form line: 23W 19D 14L from 56 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Como on 1.46 PPG, Bologna on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Como have posted 1.74 PPG from 27 outings (13W 8D 6L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 9W 10D 8L from 27 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Como are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.46 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Bologna in coming into this match?
Como have gone 22W 16D 18L in their last 56 games (1.46 PPG), while Bologna have gone 23W 19D 14L in their last 56 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Bologna away?
Como's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.74 PPG; Bologna away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Como or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Bologna in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Como and Bologna runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Como's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Como
2
Draws
2
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Bologna?
From 4 meetings on record, Como have won 0, Bologna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Como and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Como 1-1 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Como and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 59%, Bologna 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Como) and 56% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Como keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bologna in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Como's games and 56% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Como vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Como's recent games and 56% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Bologna tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bologna in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Como and Bologna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 20, as Como and Bologna drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.28 xG and Bologna 0.95 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.07 / defence 0.67 against Bologna attack 1.21 / defence 1.04, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 44% | Draw 28% | Bologna 28%, with Como to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 41%, Bologna 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Como 1.46 PPG, Bologna 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.