Cagliari 3-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cagliari at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cagliari face Venezia.

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Analysis & Preview

Venezia travel to Unipol Domus to take on Cagliari in Serie A (matchday 37). The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 20:45 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Cagliari stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Cagliari have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Venezia have recorded 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Venezia's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 7D 3L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Cagliari) versus 1.20 (Venezia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Cagliari's games and 70% of Venezia's (from Cagliari's last 10 home games and Venezia's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Cagliari have won 1, Venezia 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Dec 2024, ended Cagliari 1–2 Venezia — a Venezia win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Cagliari trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 73%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Venezia trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 51% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 60% versus Venezia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 54% | Venezia 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cagliari surrender their half-time lead 73% of the time, while Venezia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.53 xG and Venezia 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.026 / defence 1.185 | Venezia attack 0.830 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.147. Venezia's defence rating of 1.235 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cagliari's projected output up. Data: built from Cagliari's last 74 games and Venezia's last 36.

Result probabilities: Cagliari 46% | Draw 27% | Venezia 27%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.18 | Draw 3.74 | Venezia 3.65. Cagliari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cagliari are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cagliari 60% (last 10 home games) | Venezia 70% (last 10 away games).

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