Cagliari 0-1 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Napoli (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cagliari face Napoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Unipol Domus plays host to Cagliari versus Napoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Friday 20 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cagliari have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cagliari at Unipol Domus this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Napoli's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Napoli away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Napoli are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 7 meetings, Napoli have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Cagliari's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Napoli winning.
It is worth noting that Napoli have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Cagliari — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Napoli — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 51% versus Napoli 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 49% | Napoli 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.19 xG and Napoli 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.943 / defence 0.984 | Napoli attack 1.093 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.179. Data: 67 Cagliari games / 67 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 34% | Draw 27% | Napoli 38%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Napoli 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Napoli are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Napoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 40% | Napoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Friday 20 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 34% | Draw 27% | Napoli 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Cagliari 1.19 / Napoli 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.943 / def 0.984 | Napoli attack 1.093 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Napoli (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Napoli xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Napoli kick off?
Cagliari vs Napoli kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 20 March 2026 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Napoli?
Cagliari 0 - 1 Napoli.
Where is Cagliari vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Napoli part of?
Cagliari vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 34% chance of winning, Napoli a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cagliari and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Napoli?
Record (7 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 2 | Napoli 5W.
What form are Cagliari and Napoli in?
Cagliari (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Napoli (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (0.94) and Napoli's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Napoli's attack (1.09x) against Cagliari's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
34%
2.91
27%
3.67
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.45
1.27
Napoli xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
10%
10.33
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.27 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 67 outings, Cagliari have picked up 0.99 PPG on a 16W 18D 33L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Napoli's form line: 42W 15D 10L from 67 games, 2.10 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Napoli are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cagliari.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 1.15 PPG from 33 outings (10W 8D 15L).
On the road, Napoli have gone 18W 8D 7L from 33 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cagliari are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.55 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Current Season
Napoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Napoli in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 16W 18D 33L in their last 67 games (0.99 PPG), while Napoli have gone 42W 15D 10L in their last 67 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.15 PPG; Napoli away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Napoli in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Napoli go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 0-4 on 15 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Napoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cagliari
2
Draws
6
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Napoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 0, Napoli have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Cagliari 0-1 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 42%, Napoli 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cagliari) and 42% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: Napoli in 46%; Cagliari have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Napoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cagliari's recent matches and 42% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cagliari vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cagliari's recent games and 42% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Napoli tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Napoli in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Cagliari 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Cagliari 0-1 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.19 xG and Napoli 1.27 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cagliari fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Napoli attack 1.09 / defence 0.97, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 34% | Draw 27% | Napoli 38%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 49%, Napoli 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Napoli's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 0.99. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Napoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.