Cagliari 0-0 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cagliari host Lazio at Unipol Domus in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Cagliari — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari at Unipol Domus this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cagliari 1.40 PPG, Lazio 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Cagliari's 30% rate and Lazio's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Lazio, who boast 6 victories compared to 0 for Cagliari.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Lazio winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lazio have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Cagliari trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Lazio trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 49% versus Lazio 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 49% | Lazio 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 0.97 xG and Lazio 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.027 / defence 0.990 | Lazio attack 0.791 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.234. Lazio's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 63 Cagliari games / 63 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 34% | Draw 32% | Lazio 34%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Lazio 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 30% | Lazio 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 34% | Draw 32% | Lazio 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Cagliari 0.97 / Lazio 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.027 / def 0.990 | Lazio attack 0.791 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Lazio xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Lazio kick off?
Cagliari vs Lazio kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Lazio?
Cagliari 0 - 0 Lazio.
Where is Cagliari vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Lazio part of?
Cagliari vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 34% chance of winning, Lazio a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cagliari and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Lazio?
Record (7 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 1 | Lazio 6W.
What form are Cagliari and Lazio in?
Cagliari (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Lazio (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 1.03x the league average against Lazio's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
34%
2.93
32%
3.11
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Cagliari xG
Total xG
1.94
0.97
Lazio xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
13%
7.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 13.9 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Cagliari and 0.97 for Lazio, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cagliari come into this having played 63 games, going 16W 16D 31L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lazio sit at 1.56 PPG from 63 outings (26W 20D 17L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cagliari's home form reads 10W 7D 14L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Lazio have taken 1.58 points per game from 31 outings (14W 7D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.38 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Lazio in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 16W 16D 31L in their last 63 games (1.02 PPG), while Lazio have gone 26W 20D 17L in their last 63 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.19 PPG; Lazio away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Lazio in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cagliari and Lazio runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2022, when Lazio won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cagliari's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cagliari
2
Draws
6
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Lazio?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 0, Lazio have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Cagliari 0-0 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Lazio see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 42%, Lazio 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cagliari) and 42% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Lazio in 42%; Cagliari have failed to score in 36% of games; Lazio in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cagliari's recent matches and 36% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cagliari vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cagliari's recent games and 42% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Lazio tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Lazio in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cagliari's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari and Lazio finished level at 0-0 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 0.97 xG and Lazio 0.97 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cagliari fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Lazio landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.03 / defence 0.99 against Lazio attack 0.79 / defence 0.77, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 34% | Draw 32% | Lazio 34%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 49%, Lazio 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lazio's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Lazio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.