Bologna 1-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara plays host to Bologna versus Sampdoria in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 8 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sampdoria (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Sampdoria have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Bologna, 0.50 for Sampdoria — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bologna lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Bologna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Bologna half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 50% versus Sampdoria 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 50% | Sampdoria 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.54 xG and Sampdoria 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.868 / defence 1.029 | Sampdoria attack 0.786 / defence 1.304. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.129. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.304 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Bologna games / 46 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 50% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 20%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Sampdoria 5.00. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 60% | Sampdoria 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 50% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Bologna 1.54 / Sampdoria 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.868 / def 1.029 | Sampdoria attack 0.786 / def 1.304 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Bologna (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Sampdoria xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Sampdoria kick off?
Bologna vs Sampdoria kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Sampdoria?
Bologna 1 - 1 Sampdoria.
Where is Bologna vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Sampdoria part of?
Bologna vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 50% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bologna and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Sampdoria?
Record (2 meetings): Bologna 2W | Draws 0 | Sampdoria 0W.
What form are Bologna and Sampdoria in?
Bologna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Sampdoria (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bologna's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Sampdoria's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (0.79x) against Bologna's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
50%
2.00
30%
3.38
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.46
0.91
Sampdoria xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
4%
23.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.1 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Bologna and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Bologna and 0.91 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bologna's recent record stands at 13W 13D 20L from 46 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 28L across 46 games — 0.83 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Bologna against 0.83 for Sampdoria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 8W 6D 8L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sampdoria's away record stands at 4W 3D 15L across 22 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bologna are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.09 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 13W 13D 20L in their last 46 games (1.13 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 10W 8D 28L in their last 46 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Sampdoria away?
Bologna's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.36 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Bologna
1
Draws
0
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Sampdoria?
From 4 meetings on record, Bologna have won 3, Sampdoria have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Sampdoria 1-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Sampdoria?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bologna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 46%, Sampdoria 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Bologna) and 54% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bologna have failed to score in 32% of games; Sampdoria in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Sampdoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Bologna's recent matches and 41% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Bologna's recent games and 54% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna and Sampdoria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 9, as Bologna and Sampdoria drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.54 xG and Sampdoria 0.91 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.87 / defence 1.03 against Sampdoria attack 0.79 / defence 1.30, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 50% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 20%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 50%, Sampdoria 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.13 PPG, Sampdoria 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.