Bologna 0-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Parma travel to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to take on Bologna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's home record at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Bologna are significantly better at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Parma have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Parma are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bologna, 1 for Parma and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with Bologna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Parma trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 56% versus Parma 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 52% | Parma 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.06 xG and Parma 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.809 / defence 1.159 | Parma attack 0.796 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.174. Data: 61 Bologna games / 61 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 34% | Draw 30% | Parma 35%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Parma 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 40% | Parma 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 34% | Draw 30% | Parma 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Bologna 1.06 / Parma 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.809 / def 1.159 | Parma attack 0.796 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Parma (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Parma xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Parma kick off?
Bologna vs Parma kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Parma?
Bologna 0 - 1 Parma.
Where is Bologna vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Parma part of?
Bologna vs Parma is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 34% chance of winning, Parma a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bologna and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Parma?
Record (3 meetings): Bologna 1W | Draws 1 | Parma 1W.
What form are Bologna and Parma in?
Bologna (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Parma (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bologna's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
34%
2.91
30%
3.31
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.14
1.08
Parma xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
12%
8.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Bologna and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Bologna and 1.08 for Parma, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 24W 20D 17L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma's form line: 12W 23D 26L from 61 games, 0.97 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-L. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bologna are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Parma.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.70 PPG from 30 outings (14W 9D 7L).
On the road, Parma have gone 5W 13D 12L from 30 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 0.97 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Parma in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 24W 20D 17L in their last 61 games (1.51 PPG), while Parma have gone 12W 23D 26L in their last 61 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Parma away?
Bologna's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.70 PPG; Parma away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bologna's record when hosting Parma specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bologna
1
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Bologna have won 1, Parma have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Bologna 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 53%, Parma 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Bologna) and 50% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Parma in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Bologna's recent matches and 53% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Bologna's recent games and 50% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Parma tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Parma in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Bologna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Bologna 0-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.06 xG and Parma 1.08 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bologna fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.81 / defence 1.16 against Parma attack 0.80 / defence 1.06, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 34% | Draw 30% | Parma 35%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 52%, Parma 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Parma's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Parma winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.