Bologna 0-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 22 as Bologna welcome Monza to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Monza — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Bologna) versus 1.60 (Monza). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bologna, 0 for Monza and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Bologna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Monza trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 54% versus Monza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 52% | Monza 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.50 xG and Monza 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.018 / defence 0.868 | Monza attack 0.989 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.204. Data: 59 Bologna games / 21 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 48% | Draw 26% | Monza 26%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Monza 3.85. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 60% | Monza 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 48% | Draw 26% | Monza 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Bologna 1.50 / Monza 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.018 / def 0.868 | Monza attack 0.989 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Bologna (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Monza xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Monza kick off?
Bologna vs Monza kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Monza?
Bologna 0 - 1 Monza.
Where is Bologna vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Monza part of?
Bologna vs Monza is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 48% chance of winning, Monza a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bologna and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Monza?
Record (1 meetings): Bologna 1W | Draws 0 | Monza 0W.
What form are Bologna and Monza in?
Bologna (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Monza (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bologna's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Monza's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
48%
2.09
26%
3.85
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.53
1.03
Monza xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
6%
17.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Bologna and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Bologna and 1.03 for Monza, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna come into this having played 59 games, going 20W 15D 24L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.68 PPG from 59 outings (29W 12D 18L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Bologna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bologna's home form reads 12W 8D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.34 points per game from 29 outings (11W 6D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.59 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Monza in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 20W 15D 24L in their last 59 games (1.27 PPG), while Monza have gone 29W 12D 18L in their last 59 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Monza away?
Bologna's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.52 PPG; Monza away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Bologna or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Monza in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Bologna's record when hosting Monza specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Bologna
2
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Monza?
From 6 meetings on record, Bologna have won 3, Monza have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Bologna 3-1 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Monza?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 48%, Monza 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Bologna) and 52% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Monza in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Bologna's recent matches and 52% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Bologna's recent games and 52% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Monza tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Monza in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Monza defy the odds to beat Bologna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Bologna 0-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.50 xG and Monza 1.03 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bologna fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.02 / defence 0.87 against Monza attack 0.99 / defence 1.08, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 48% | Draw 26% | Monza 26%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Monza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 52%, Monza 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Monza's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Monza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.