Bologna 5-0 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Lazio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bologna welcome Lazio to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 16 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bologna stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Bologna have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Lazio have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Lazio have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Bologna are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Bologna have won 2, Lazio 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2024, ended Bologna 0–3 Lazio — a Lazio win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 59%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Lazio trading profile (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 52% versus Lazio 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 48% | Lazio 53%). Note also that Lazio surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Bologna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 59% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.43 xG and Lazio 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.278 / defence 0.950 | Lazio attack 1.126 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.226. Bologna carry an above-average attack rating of 1.278 — their 1.43 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Bologna's last 66 games and Lazio's last 66.
Result probabilities: Bologna 38% | Draw 29% | Lazio 33%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.63 | Draw 3.41 | Lazio 3.06. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bologna's last 10 home games and Lazio's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bologna 60% (last 10 home games) | Lazio 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 16 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 38% | Draw 29% | Lazio 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Bologna 1.43 / Lazio 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.278 / def 0.950 | Lazio attack 1.126 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Bologna (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Lazio xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bologna vs Lazio FAQs
What time does Bologna vs Lazio kick off?
Bologna vs Lazio kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Lazio?
Bologna 5 - 0 Lazio.
Where is Bologna vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Lazio part of?
Bologna vs Lazio is a Serie A fixture (matchday 29) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 38% chance of winning, Lazio a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Bologna and Lazio will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bologna vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bologna's attack at 1.28x the league average against Lazio's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bologna's last 66 games and Lazio's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
38%
2.63
29%
3.41
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.74
1.31
Lazio xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
10%
9.76
8%
12.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bologna vs Lazio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Bologna and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Bologna and 1.31 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna come into this having played 66 games, going 31W 25D 10L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Lazio sit at 1.70 PPG from 66 outings (33W 13D 20L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.79 PPG, Lazio on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bologna's home form reads 20W 10D 3L across their last 33 home games, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Lazio have taken 1.58 points per game from their last 33 away games (16W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.50 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Current Season
Lazio
Current Season
Bologna (Home) vs Lazio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bologna
Current Season
Lazio
Current Season
❓ Bologna vs Lazio Form FAQs
What form are Bologna and Lazio in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 31W 25D 10L in their last 66 games (1.79 PPG), while Lazio have gone 33W 13D 20L in their last 66 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Lazio away?
Bologna's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.12 PPG; Lazio away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Bologna or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Lazio in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 24 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Lazio have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Mar 2025, when Bologna won Bologna 5-0 Lazio.
Bologna's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bologna
2
Draws
5
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Bologna vs Lazio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Lazio?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bologna have won 3, Lazio have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Lazio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 August 2026: Bologna 0-1 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 39% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 46%, Lazio 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bologna) and 58% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bologna vs Lazio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bologna and Lazio matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Bologna's recent matches and 61% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bologna and Lazio matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bologna's recent games and 58% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Lazio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Bologna's recent matches and 79% of Lazio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bologna run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Lazio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Lazio 5-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.43 xG and Lazio 1.31 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lazio landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.28 / defence 0.95 against Lazio attack 1.13 / defence 0.87, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 38% | Draw 29% | Lazio 33%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 48%, Lazio 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lazio's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.79 PPG, Lazio 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Lazio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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