Bologna 1-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Empoli travel to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to take on Bologna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 August 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's home record at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bologna are significantly better at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Empoli have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Bologna) versus 1.50 (Empoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Bologna, 3 for Empoli and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Bologna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Bologna in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Empoli in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 45% versus Empoli 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bologna 42% | Empoli 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.41 xG and Empoli 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.078 / defence 0.936 | Empoli attack 1.004 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.121. Data: 40 Bologna games / 40 Empoli games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bologna 42% | Draw 32% | Empoli 25%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Empoli 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 40% | Empoli 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 42% | Draw 32% | Empoli 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Bologna 1.41 / Empoli 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.078 / def 0.936 | Empoli attack 1.004 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Bologna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Empoli xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Empoli kick off?
Bologna vs Empoli kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Empoli?
Bologna 1 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Bologna vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Empoli part of?
Bologna vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 42% chance of winning, Empoli a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bologna and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Empoli?
Record (6 meetings): Bologna 2W | Draws 1 | Empoli 3W.
What form are Bologna and Empoli in?
Bologna (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Empoli (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bologna's attack at 1.08x the league average against Empoli's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
42%
2.36
32%
3.09
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.47
1.05
Empoli xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
6%
16.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bologna and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Bologna and 1.05 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 18W 15D 7L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Empoli's form line: 10W 10D 20L from 40 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bologna are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Empoli.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bologna have posted 2.10 PPG from 20 outings (12W 6D 2L).
On the road, Empoli have gone 5W 4D 11L from 20 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.78 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Empoli in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 18W 15D 7L in their last 40 games (1.72 PPG), while Empoli have gone 10W 10D 20L in their last 40 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Empoli away?
Bologna's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.10 PPG; Empoli away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Bologna or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Empoli in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Bologna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bologna
3
Draws
3
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Bologna have won 2, Empoli have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Empoli 1-1 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Empoli?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 35%, Empoli 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Bologna and 35% for Empoli.
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Empoli in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Bologna's recent matches and 40% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Bologna's recent games and 35% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Empoli tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Empoli in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna and Empoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 3, as Bologna and Empoli drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.41 xG and Empoli 1.05 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.08 / defence 0.94 against Empoli attack 1.00 / defence 0.96, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 42% | Draw 32% | Empoli 25%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 42%, Empoli 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Empoli's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.