Bologna 0-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 34 as Bologna welcome AS Roma to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bologna — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bologna have posted 2W 1D 7L at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season.
Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
AS Roma's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Bologna) versus 1.50 (AS Roma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Bologna, 2 for AS Roma and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with AS Roma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bologna in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
AS Roma in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 52% versus AS Roma 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 49% | AS Roma 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.16 xG and AS Roma 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.824 / defence 1.098 | AS Roma attack 1.060 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.138. Data: 71 Bologna games / 71 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 33% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 40%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | AS Roma 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Bologna 30% | AS Roma 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 33% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Bologna 1.16 / AS Roma 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.824 / def 1.098 | AS Roma attack 1.060 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.32
AS Roma xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs AS Roma kick off?
Bologna vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs AS Roma?
Bologna 0 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Bologna vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs AS Roma part of?
Bologna vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 33% chance of winning, AS Roma a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bologna and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and AS Roma?
Record (9 meetings): Bologna 4W | Draws 3 | AS Roma 2W.
What form are Bologna and AS Roma in?
Bologna (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. AS Roma (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bologna's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
33%
3.06
27%
3.71
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.49
1.32
AS Roma xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
9%
11.49
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bologna and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Bologna and 1.32 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bologna's recent record stands at 30W 20D 21L from 71 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 38W 13D 20L across 71 games — 1.79 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.55 PPG, AS Roma on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 16W 9D 10L from 35 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 14W 8D 13L across 35 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Bologna are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.44 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 30W 20D 21L in their last 71 games (1.55 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 38W 13D 20L in their last 71 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or AS Roma away?
Bologna's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.63 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Bologna or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, AS Roma in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bologna and AS Roma runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Bologna's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
3
Draws
3
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, AS Roma have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bologna 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and AS Roma?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 49%, AS Roma 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Bologna) and 34% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; AS Roma in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Bologna's recent matches and 46% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Bologna's recent games and 34% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and AS Roma tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 51% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Bologna 0-2 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.16 xG and AS Roma 1.32 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bologna fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.82 / defence 1.10 against AS Roma attack 1.06 / defence 1.12, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 33% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 40%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 49%, AS Roma 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.55 PPG, AS Roma 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.