Bologna 2-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bologna (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bologna face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 20 as Bologna welcome AS Roma to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 January 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bologna — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bologna have posted 3W 6D 1L at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season.
Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Bologna carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bologna register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, AS Roma in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Bologna: 4 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for AS Roma, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 3–2 with Bologna winning.
The historical record gives Bologna a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bologna in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
AS Roma in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 47% versus AS Roma 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 46% | AS Roma 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.60 xG and AS Roma 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.033 / defence 0.847 | AS Roma attack 0.765 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.302. AS Roma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Bologna games / 57 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 54% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 18%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | AS Roma 5.56. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Bologna 60% | AS Roma 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jan 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 54% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Bologna 1.60 / AS Roma 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.033 / def 0.847 | AS Roma attack 0.765 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Bologna (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.84
AS Roma xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs AS Roma kick off?
Bologna vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 January 2025 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs AS Roma?
Bologna 2 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Bologna vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs AS Roma part of?
Bologna vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 54% chance of winning, AS Roma a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bologna and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and AS Roma?
Record (7 meetings): Bologna 4W | Draws 2 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Bologna and AS Roma in?
Bologna (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. AS Roma (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bologna's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.64
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.45
0.84
AS Roma xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
4%
26.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.7 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Bologna and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Bologna and 0.84 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bologna's recent record stands at 25W 21D 9L from 55 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 24W 13D 18L across 55 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.75 PPG, AS Roma on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 15W 9D 3L from 27 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 6W 10D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AS Roma's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bologna are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 25W 21D 9L in their last 55 games (1.75 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 24W 13D 18L in their last 55 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or AS Roma away?
Bologna's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.00 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Bologna or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, AS Roma in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bologna and AS Roma runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Bologna's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
3
Draws
3
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, AS Roma have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bologna 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and AS Roma?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 37%, AS Roma 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bologna) and 52% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; AS Roma in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Bologna's recent matches and 63% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bologna's recent games and 52% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and AS Roma tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna and AS Roma share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 20, as Bologna and AS Roma drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.60 xG and AS Roma 0.84 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. AS Roma outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.03 / defence 0.85 against AS Roma attack 0.77 / defence 1.22, drawn from 55/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 54% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 18%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 46%, AS Roma 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.75 PPG, AS Roma 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bologna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.