Atalanta 1-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Udinese at 41%, yet in-form Atalanta provide a compelling counter-argument — this Atalanta vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 9 as Atalanta welcome Udinese to Gewiss Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atalanta stand at 4W 2D 2L from 8 Serie A matches — 1.75 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 1.25 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta at Gewiss Stadium this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.75 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gewiss Stadium this season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have recorded 2W 3D 3L from 8 outings — 1.12 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Udinese have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.63 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.75 vs 1.12. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Atalanta trading profile (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
Udinese trading profile (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 75% versus Udinese 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 75% | Udinese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.32 xG and Udinese 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 0.868 / defence 1.166 | Udinese attack 0.835 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.541. Data: 8 Atalanta games / 8 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 34% | Draw 25% | Udinese 41%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Udinese 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atalanta (1.75 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Atalanta 75% | Udinese 33%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 34% | Draw 25% | Udinese 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Atalanta 1.32 / Udinese 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 0.868 / def 1.166 | Udinese attack 0.835 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.541 • Poisson stance: Udinese (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Udinese xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Udinese kick off?
Atalanta vs Udinese kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Udinese?
Atalanta 1 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Atalanta vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Udinese part of?
Atalanta vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 34% chance of winning, Udinese a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Atalanta and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Udinese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atalanta and Udinese in?
Atalanta (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Udinese (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atalanta's attack at 0.87x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
34%
2.98
25%
3.99
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.83
1.50
Udinese xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
7%
13.37
11%
9.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.50 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atalanta's recent record stands at 4W 2D 2L from 8 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 3L across 8 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atalanta by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atalanta have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.75 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Udinese's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Atalanta are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atalanta have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 8 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Udinese in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 games (1.75 PPG), while Udinese have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Udinese away?
Udinese's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.00 PPG; Udinese away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2022, when Atalanta won 2-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atalanta's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Atalanta
6
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 3, Udinese have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Atalanta 2-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Udinese?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Atalanta at 100%, Udinese at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Atalanta and 33% for Udinese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Udinese in 33%; Udinese in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Atalanta's games and 33% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Atalanta's matches and 33% of Udinese's.
Do Atalanta and Udinese tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Udinese in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atalanta and Udinese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta and Udinese finished level at 1-1 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.32 xG and Udinese 1.50 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 0.87 / defence 1.17 against Udinese attack 0.83 / defence 1.14, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 34% | Draw 25% | Udinese 41%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 75%, Udinese 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Udinese's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atalanta (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.