Atalanta 5-2 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atalanta vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atalanta and Monza meet at Gewiss Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 June 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Atalanta's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atalanta have posted 6W 1D 3L at Gewiss Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Monza (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Monza's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Atalanta, 0 for Monza and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2022, ended 2–0 with Atalanta winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Atalanta goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 60% versus Monza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 55% | Monza 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.55 xG and Monza 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.235 / defence 1.194 | Monza attack 1.020 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.177. Data: 75 Atalanta games / 37 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 40% | Draw 24% | Monza 35%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Monza 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atalanta if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 60% | Monza 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jun 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 40% | Draw 24% | Monza 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Atalanta 1.55 / Monza 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.235 / def 1.194 | Monza attack 1.020 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Monza xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Monza kick off?
Atalanta vs Monza kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 4 June 2023 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Monza?
Atalanta 5 - 2 Monza.
Where is Atalanta vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Monza part of?
Atalanta vs Monza is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 40% chance of winning, Monza a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Atalanta and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Monza?
Record (1 meetings): Atalanta 1W | Draws 0 | Monza 0W.
What form are Atalanta and Monza in?
Atalanta (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Monza (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Atalanta's attack rating (1.24) and Monza's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Monza's attack (1.02x) against Atalanta's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 75/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
40%
2.48
24%
4.11
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.98
1.43
Monza xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
10%
10.39
8%
13.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.43 for Monza, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atalanta come into this having played 75 games, going 34W 18D 23L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.67 PPG from 75 outings (36W 17D 22L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Atalanta against 1.67 for Monza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Atalanta's home form reads 13W 11D 13L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.46 points per game from 37 outings (15W 9D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atalanta are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.51 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atalanta have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Monza in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 34W 18D 23L in their last 75 games (1.60 PPG), while Monza have gone 36W 17D 22L in their last 75 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Monza away?
Monza's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.35 PPG; Monza away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Monza in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Atalanta have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atalanta won 0-4 on 4 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Atalanta
0
Draws
0
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Monza?
From 6 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 6, Monza have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Monza 0-4 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Monza?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 68%, Monza 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Atalanta) and 49% (Monza).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Monza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Atalanta's games and 51% of Monza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Atalanta's recent games and 49% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Monza tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Monza in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atalanta run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Monza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Monza 5-2 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.55 xG and Monza 1.43 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Atalanta beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.24 / defence 1.19 against Monza attack 1.02 / defence 0.94, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 40% | Draw 24% | Monza 35%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 55%, Monza 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Monza's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.60 PPG, Monza 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock. Atalanta (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Monza (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.