Atalanta 1-2 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 41%, yet in-form Hellas Verona provide a compelling counter-argument — this Atalanta vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 33 as Atalanta welcome Hellas Verona to Gewiss Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 18 April 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Atalanta — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Atalanta's home record at Gewiss Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Hellas Verona have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hellas Verona's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hellas Verona — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Atalanta register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Hellas Verona in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Atalanta have won 1, Hellas Verona 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 2–1 with Atalanta winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Atalanta in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Atalanta 61% and Hellas Verona 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 61% | Hellas Verona 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.56 xG and Hellas Verona 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.074 / defence 1.203 | Hellas Verona attack 0.893 / defence 1.375. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.243. Hellas Verona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.375 — this is suppressing Atalanta's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Atalanta games / 32 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 41% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 31%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Hellas Verona 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hellas Verona (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 60% | Hellas Verona 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 41% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Atalanta 1.56 / Hellas Verona 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.074 / def 1.203 | Hellas Verona attack 0.893 / def 1.375 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Hellas Verona xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Atalanta vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Hellas Verona?
Atalanta 1 - 2 Hellas Verona.
Where is Atalanta vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Hellas Verona part of?
Atalanta vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 41% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Atalanta and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Hellas Verona?
Record (1 meetings): Atalanta 1W | Draws 0 | Hellas Verona 0W.
What form are Atalanta and Hellas Verona in?
Atalanta (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Hellas Verona (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Atalanta's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
41%
2.45
28%
3.53
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.89
1.34
Hellas Verona xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
7%
15.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.34 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Atalanta have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 14W 9D 8L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Hellas Verona's form line: 12W 9D 10L from 31 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atalanta on 1.65 PPG, Hellas Verona on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Atalanta have posted 1.20 PPG from 15 outings (4W 6D 5L). That actually lags their 1.65 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 3W 7D 5L from 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Atalanta are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.74 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atalanta have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Hellas Verona in 74%.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Current Season
Hellas Verona
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 14W 9D 8L in their last 31 games (1.65 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 12W 9D 10L in their last 31 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Hellas Verona away?
Atalanta's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.20 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Hellas Verona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Hellas Verona in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atalanta and Hellas Verona runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Atalanta won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atalanta's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Atalanta
1
Draws
2
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Hellas Verona?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 7, Hellas Verona have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Atalanta 1-0 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Hellas Verona?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Atalanta at 67%, Hellas Verona at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Atalanta and 53% for Hellas Verona. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Atalanta's games and 80% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Atalanta's matches and 53% of Hellas Verona's.
Do Atalanta and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hellas Verona defy the odds to beat Atalanta 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Atalanta 1-2 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.56 xG and Hellas Verona 1.34 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.07 / defence 1.20 against Hellas Verona attack 0.89 / defence 1.38, drawn from 31/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 41% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 31%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Hellas Verona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 61%, Hellas Verona 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.65 PPG, Hellas Verona 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hellas Verona win broke the near-deadlock. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.