Atalanta 3-2 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atalanta face Fiorentina.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Atalanta welcome Fiorentina to Gewiss Stadium in Serie A (matchday 4). Kick-off is Sunday 15 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Atalanta have gone 7W 0D 3L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Atalanta's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Fiorentina — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Fiorentina's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Atalanta) versus 1.90 (Fiorentina). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Atalanta have won 1, Fiorentina 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Jun 2024, ended Atalanta 2–3 Fiorentina — a Fiorentina win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Atalanta trading profile (last 41 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Fiorentina trading profile (last 41 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 51% versus Fiorentina 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 68% | Fiorentina 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.60 xG and Fiorentina 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.205 / defence 0.991 | Fiorentina attack 1.056 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.097. Data: built from Atalanta's last 41 games and Fiorentina's last 41.
Result probabilities: Atalanta 45% | Draw 31% | Fiorentina 24%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.23 | Draw 3.24 | Fiorentina 4.11. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Atalanta's last 10 home games and Fiorentina's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atalanta 50% (last 10 home games) | Fiorentina 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, matchday 4 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 45% | Draw 31% | Fiorentina 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Atalanta 1.60 / Fiorentina 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.205 / def 0.991 | Fiorentina attack 1.056 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Fiorentina xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atalanta vs Fiorentina FAQs
What time does Atalanta vs Fiorentina kick off?
Atalanta vs Fiorentina kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Atalanta 3 - 2 Fiorentina.
Where is Atalanta vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Fiorentina part of?
Atalanta vs Fiorentina is a Serie A fixture (matchday 4) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 45% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Atalanta and Fiorentina will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atalanta vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Atalanta's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Fiorentina's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atalanta's last 41 games and Fiorentina's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
45%
2.23
31%
3.24
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.75
1.15
Fiorentina xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
5%
20.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atalanta vs Fiorentina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.15 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atalanta's recent record stands at 22W 6D 13L from 41 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 12L across 41 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-W-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atalanta on 1.76 PPG, Fiorentina on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atalanta have managed 13W 2D 4L from their last 19 home games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Atalanta are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 6W 5D 8L across their last 19 away games, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atalanta are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.56 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Early Season
Fiorentina
Early Season
Atalanta (Home) vs Fiorentina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atalanta
Early Season
Fiorentina
Early Season
❓ Atalanta vs Fiorentina Form FAQs
What form are Atalanta and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 22W 6D 13L in their last 41 games (1.76 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 17W 12D 12L in their last 41 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Fiorentina away?
Atalanta's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 2.16 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 29 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Atalanta's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Atalanta
3
Draws
4
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Atalanta vs Fiorentina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Fiorentina?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atalanta have won 3, Fiorentina have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Fiorentina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 October 2026: Fiorentina 2-2 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 47%, Fiorentina 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Atalanta) and 32% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Fiorentina in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atalanta vs Fiorentina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atalanta and Fiorentina matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Atalanta's recent matches and 47% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atalanta and Fiorentina matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Atalanta's recent games and 32% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Fiorentina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Atalanta's recent matches and 84% of Fiorentina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atalanta edge out Fiorentina 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Fiorentina 3-2 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.60 xG and Fiorentina 1.15 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Atalanta beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fiorentina outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.21 / defence 0.99 against Fiorentina attack 1.06 / defence 0.98, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 45% | Draw 31% | Fiorentina 24%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 68%, Fiorentina 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Fiorentina's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.76 PPG, Fiorentina 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock. Atalanta (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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