Atalanta 2-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 35%, yet in-form Bologna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Atalanta vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atalanta host Bologna at Gewiss Stadium in Serie A (matchday 32). Kick-off is Sunday 13 April 2025 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Atalanta — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Atalanta's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Bologna have recorded 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Bologna away from home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bologna — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Atalanta, 3 for Bologna and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended Atalanta 1–1 Bologna — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Atalanta in-play and half-time data (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Bologna in-play and half-time data (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 61%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 51% versus Bologna 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 61% | Bologna 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.18 xG and Bologna 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 0.942 / defence 0.989 | Bologna attack 0.992 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.176. Data: built from Atalanta's last 69 games and Bologna's last 69.
Result probabilities: Atalanta 35% | Draw 31% | Bologna 34%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.86 | Draw 3.18 | Bologna 2.98. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bologna (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Atalanta 60% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, matchday 32 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 April 2025 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 35% | Draw 31% | Bologna 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Atalanta 1.18 / Bologna 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 0.942 / def 0.989 | Bologna attack 0.992 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Bologna xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atalanta vs Bologna FAQs
What time does Atalanta vs Bologna kick off?
Atalanta vs Bologna kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Bologna?
Atalanta 2 - 0 Bologna.
Where is Atalanta vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Bologna part of?
Atalanta vs Bologna is a Serie A fixture (matchday 32) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 35% chance of winning, Bologna a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Atalanta and Bologna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Atalanta vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atalanta's attack rating (0.94) and Bologna's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atalanta's last 69 games and Bologna's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
35%
2.86
31%
3.18
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.34
1.15
Bologna xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
11%
9.06
10%
9.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atalanta vs Bologna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.15 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 69 outings, Atalanta have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 38W 13D 18L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Bologna's form line: 33W 26D 10L from 69 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atalanta on 1.84 PPG, Bologna on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Atalanta have posted 1.94 PPG from their last 34 home games (20W 6D 8L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 12W 15D 7L from their last 34 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atalanta are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.52 scored and 0.97 conceded. Atalanta's scoring rate against Bologna's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Bologna in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
Atalanta (Home) vs Bologna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atalanta
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
❓ Atalanta vs Bologna Form FAQs
What form are Atalanta and Bologna in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 38W 13D 18L in their last 69 games (1.84 PPG), while Bologna have gone 33W 26D 10L in their last 69 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Bologna away?
Atalanta's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.94 PPG; Bologna away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Bologna in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 31 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atalanta's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Atalanta
1
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Atalanta vs Bologna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Bologna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atalanta have won 5, Bologna have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Bologna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 August 2026: Atalanta 1-0 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Bologna?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 56%, Bologna 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Atalanta) and 53% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Bologna in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atalanta vs Bologna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atalanta and Bologna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Atalanta's games and 56% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Atalanta and Bologna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Atalanta's matches and 53% of Bologna's.
Do Atalanta and Bologna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Atalanta's recent matches and 71% of Bologna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atalanta cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Bologna 2-0 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.18 xG and Bologna 1.15 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Atalanta beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bologna landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against Bologna attack 0.99 / defence 0.99, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 35% | Draw 31% | Bologna 34%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 61%, Bologna 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bologna's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.84 PPG, Bologna 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock. Atalanta (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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